Fluctuation Of Grain Production And Price In China

Using modern economics and methodology, this paper proposed a systematic framework on the fluctuation of grain production and price in China based on the concrete policies and institutional environments. It aims to lay a scientific foundation on the judgment of fluctuation trend in the future and the formulation and arrangement of the grain policies. Building on the researching basis of chapter 1 and literature review of chapter 2, chapter 3 defined scientifically the short-term and long-term fluctuation and described the general features of grain production fluctuation in China. The results of analysis showed that the course of production fluctuation used to be quite irregular and China ,associated with the planned economy, super intervention, labor-intensive operation system and ample land area, has the lowest fluctuation in the world. With the help of statistical analysis, this study also found that the degree of fluctuation after the reform is not significantly different from that before. Chapter 4 analyzed the structural features of grain production fluctuation and the relationships between the structure and the aggregate. The author concluded that each variety, due to the different characteristics of supply, demand and marketing, has its own fluctuation pattern and contributes to the aggregate differently. Chapter 5 ,using production economics, probed into the causes of stability and fluctuation in China's grain production. The author suggest that the long-term stability be resulted from the "fixity"and "quasi-fixity"inputs, i.e. labor force, capital construction and sownarea, and that the year to year fluctuation be caused by the variable input, natural disasters and institutional change. Chapter 6 positively analyzed the supply response of China's grain production. The results showed that the production decision is lagged behind the price change and either the short-term or the long-term price elasticity of grain is lower than that of the factors. Chapter 7 analyzed the causes of price fluctuation from the perspectives of supply, demand and markets. The author believed that institutional environment is the key factor which enlarged the price fluctuation degree。Chapter 8 is the prediction of the trend of production and price fluctuation and the author proposed systematically some policies which stabilizing the production and price fluctuation.