Study On Local Fiscal Risk And Its Measure To Keep A Way In China

In recent years, the difficult public financial issue causes the attention of various countries. The most difficult problem in this field is the risk issue. Fiscal risk is divided into central fiscal risk and local fiscal risk. Local fiscal risk is concentrated on some areas under most situations so as to produce direct influence only on regional economy, but the steady operation of the local fiscal system will affect the stability and development of the central finance indirectly. In the past ten years, the domestic and international scholars have had some progress of the theory of the fiscal risk, and never stopped discussing the issue of fiscal risk, which has produced a lot of theory and view with insight. But limited by various kinds of factors, most research is still concentrated on risk of central finance, there is little study on local fiscal risk.that it has not formed an overall and systematic theoretical system yet. The thesis hopes to carry on further investigation on theory and practice of our country's local fiscal risk, in order to find a clue to the mystery of the local fiscal risk. This thesis takes deep into the study which hold the discuss of connotation, level, representations, characteristics, resons, precautions of local fiscal risk as the main thread and regard local governmental debt's risk, local fincancial department risk and public risk undertaken in local government as the auxiliary line. Based on the review of the risk theory,governmental debt's theory and the local fiscal risk's theory, the author firstly dicuss the meaning,classification,representation and characters of local fiscal risk in China.Then according to public economics and its relevant theories, the author analyzes thoroughly the formation mechanism of the local governmental debt's risk ,the local fiscal risk and the public risk that local finance undertak from three angles of view which are the borrowing behavior of local government,the inherent expanding theory of local expenditure compared with the local fiscal revenues, the dialectical relation between public risk and government.Subsequently,the author analyzes influence factor's analysis of the local financial risk from factor in local fiscal debt's management, local fiscal balance factor and the public risk factor in economical operation respectively by questionare. Based on the analysis of the formation mechanism and influence of local fiscal, the author sets up the index system of local financial risk and builds an early warning model based AHP of entropy fuzzy,.By testing real example data of 40 counties in Chongqing using correlation analysis of Spearman and AMOS structure equation ,the author proves the logic relation among these three kind of local financial risks of local public risk, the risk of the local financial revenue and expenditure and local government debt risk. Finally, the author puts forward the countermeasures on three kind of local fiscal risk repectively. The innovation points of this thesis are as follows: This thesis tries hard to analyzes the overall frame of the behavior in local governmental financing. First of all, the author proves economic rationality and financial rationality that the local government borrows money. Secondly, drawing lessons from Niskanen's bureaucracy model, the thesis constructs the political economy model that the local government borrows money under the three assumed conditions which are " the debt budget of local government is maximized ", " local government official's utility is maximized " and " pay the debts under the pressure condition local government official's utility is maximized ". Specially, setting up the local government official's pressure factor of payment of debts, this thesis proves that the larger the local government'pressure of paying the debts, the less scale of borrowing money of scale and public product is liked to be offered. Thirdly, based on the analysis of information asymmetry during the china's institutional transfer, the author considers that no good supervise to the local government may make them borrow money blindly. Based on the theory of public risk, the author builds up analytic structure about public and private risk. Through analysing to economics of public risk and private risk, it sets up sharing models optimumly of public risk and private risk. It figures out the optimal point under the private budget limitation and financial budget limitation. This point makes the public and private risk optimized. The author tries hard to synthesize foreign financial risk research experience and China's situation.in order to builds up a scientific evaluation system. The author chooses static, dynamic and structure index synthetically and adopts the right law of entropy to evaluate local fiscal risk of chongqing in 2003.According to the result of empirical calculation, the author uses correlation analysis of Spearman and AMOS structure equation, then proves the logic relation among these three kinds of local financial risks of local public risk, the risk of the local financial revenue and expenditure and local government debt risk. On the basis of the experience to financial risk management of OECD countries, the author puts forward concrete measure for the budget accounting reform, so as to improve information quality of the governmental accounting, then sets up the debt risk's英文摘要limited mechanism of local government for the supervision from higer rank's government to lower one. At last the author put forword the counter measure for improving the financial transparency to make government accept the surveillance by the masses.