| This paper is about the rural consumer behavior change and its system of the cause of empirical research. Human is not only producers but also consumers. People's consumption activities is not only the driving force of the development of economy and society, but also is the ultimate purpose of the production activities. Consumption which is one of the important social reproduction link is the important power of development and the main realization forms. It has close relationship with the change of the national income growth and the transformation of economic development mode. The harmonious between dual economic structure and various systems (especially the rural the system reform of synchronization) induce that the income gap of urban and rural residents becomes larger and the rural consumption market development lags behind in our country for a long time. The rural consumer faced a series of obstacle of system and mechanism, which seriously restrict the rural consumer behavior of healthy development. The existing research has a huge contribution to analyze the rural consumer law and depict the rural consumption level and changed structure mechanism, but it was still insufficient. One is that the existing research literature in rural residents' consumption merely study the changes of foreign consumer economy theory which based on a hypothesis. It lacks of the organic integration of consumer economy theory. Another is that the estimated method of factors of consumer effect adopt the fixed parameters estimation method. The regression coefficients don't change over time. It studies the average affected relationship in economic variables. Based on this, the perspective of this paper focuses on selective observation or operation, economic variable which easily be explained with experience in the existing consumer economy hypothesis. It uses the variable parameter estimation method and system dynamics simulation method to depict the rural consumer behavior changes, and analyzes the causes of the system.Through the theoretical analysis and empirical examination, We can clarify the performance, nature and purpose of institutional factors of the changed rural residents' consumption behavior since the implementation of the policy of reform and opening-up.1.Research contentsThe main studied content of this paper includes:(1) The farmers consumer behavior theory analysis. Through the literature review, the model construction method and so on, it uses of consumption theory, behavioral economics theory and system economics theory to analyze the perspectives of consumer behavior characteristics, the main influence factors and the institutional environment of the interactive relationship of the rural residents crossly.(2) The performance of rural consumer behavior change and its fundamental characteristic. Through analysis the rural residents in consumption quantity, consumption structure and consumption form and consumption tendency of changes, we can demonstrate the changes of consumer behavior in desires, forms and results. Combining the theory of consumer behavior, we can analysis and validate the track changes of rural consumer behavior characteristics to reflect its nature of consumption behavior change since the implementation of the policy of reform and opening-up.(3) The causes of rural consumer behavior change system. Through the analysis of the influence of the main system factors in our nation system changes, which affect consumer behavior. the system of rural residents factors reveal the mechanism of the consumer behavior, including main motivations, transmission mechanism and direction, and use empirical methods proving the change system causes of rural consumer behavior by choosing related variables.(4) The forecast of rural consumer behavior change trend. Based on rural consumer behavior changes the internal rules, we can construct the system dynamics simulation model. By using Vensim software build the system of rural consumer behavior changes and its subsystems causality diagram, the system dynamics model. We can find the key factors of the developed rural consumer behavior,make main policy simulation experiment which influent the behavior of the rural consumer to analyze the specific function and direction of different policy strength.(5) The fast development of system innovation and policy suggestions to promote rural consumer behavior health. Combined with actual situation we can analyze the main system obstacles of current suppression rural consumer behavior. Based on the dynamic mechanism of institutional change in our country, we put forward basic goals, principles, contents and security conditions of the system innovation to guide and promote rural consumer behavior to drive ahead sound and fast, and thereafter puts forward health policy suggestions to expand rural consumer and guide the consumer behavior with fast development in the new period with the policy test results.2.Important conclusions(1) Since the implementation of the policy of reform and opening-up, Chongqing rural consumer behavior develops towards a healthy and constantly reasonable direction in general, the rural consumption level increases year by year, the quality of consumption improves constantly and consumption level comes into a well-off stage; Consumption structure develops from the simple to the multiple compound with complex structure. Consumption structure becomes reasonable, higher constantly. The rural residents'consumption behavior volatiles and can't be simply explained by income factors changes in consumer behavior in the process of institutional change.(2) The empirical analysis shows that rural consumer behavior change feature can be situation in three aspects:first, rural residents' income sensitivity presents a declining trend in Chongqing. Second, most of the years in1979-2010real interest rates to rural consumer "income effect" is greater than "substitution effect", it means rural residents rise the option to add the current consumption than savings when faced real interest rates. The third, from the rural residents' motivation on precautionary saving in Chongqing, the number from-0.01in1979increase to19.96in2010, it presents a rise situation sharply. It means uncertainty factors lead to the residents of the enhanced precautionary saving motivation strength increases, it dampens the development of consumption.(3) On one hand, through the influence of three empirical analysis system:rural factors the consumption of the residents income sensitivity, cross-time optional consumption tendency and precautionary saving motivation, we can found that, institutional changes brought a rapid growth in increasing farmers' income, a boom in the rural commodity, a boost in rural infrastructure construction level and the rural social security system. It increases the rural residents' consumption income sensitivity favorably, decreases the uncertain consumption factors, enhances the rural residents' consumption desire and ability, and promotes their healthy development of consumer behavior. On the other hand, because the process of institutional change market winds complexly, many system reform measures do not reach the designated position, the development of rural agricultural economy debates too much in history, farmers' wealth standard is weak, the urbanization level of wealth "city center socialist" turns and so on in our country, those factors lead to increases of the rural consumer uncertainty factors, income growth and consumption growth are not synchronous, the situation that "no money can not consumption, rich dare not consumption" by farmers, and then restrict the development of rural consumer.(4) Rural resident consumption behavior is influenced by so many factors through studying the rural consumer behavior of the system simulation. The change of per faming capita income growth has an important impact on rural consumer increment, the consumption structure and consumption rate, it is the most crucial factors among the change of rural consumer behavior. From the changes of rural per capita income growth rate increase or decrease how influencing consumption behavior, the rise of income growth to improve rural consumption increment rate and the influence degree is lower than the drop of income. So, the "substitution effect" from the changes of rural resident income is more obvious than "income effect". In Chongqing rural residents' consumption showed greater vigilance and preventive, which contrasts with James Stemble Duesenberry's research about consumers spending habits proposing "Go up can not Falling" phenomenon and the "Ratchet Effect" theory. Although they tend to be along with the improvement of income growth to increase consumption, more easily with the decrease of income growth rate to reduce consumption.(5) Income distribution, prices and interest rates and rural public financial policies are modeling experimented by using of rural consumer behavior system dynamics model. The results showed that:different policies on rural household income level, consumption level, consumption structure and the influence of the per capita consumption rate are different in direction and strength. First, income distribution policy has the most extensive influence. it not only affects the adjustment of rural residents'income level, but also affects the level of consumption of rural residents, consumption structure and the per capita consumption rate. Second, the increase of inflation has great negative impact on rural consumer. The raise of inflation level will lead to slow down the growth levels of rural residents entertainment consumption. Third, interest rates increase of rural per capita consumption rate is increase then decline, and the maximum time is different under the different per capita consumption rate. Fourth, the rural public fiscal policies have huge influence on rural residents' consumption level degree. In short term, the increase of rural infrastructure investment level plays an obvious role in boosting consumption. While, in the long term, the benefits coming from investment in rural infrastructure construction investment is slowing down in policy, that is to say that the rural consumption growth may reach critical point by improving the rural infrastructure.(6) This paper studies show that there are many system obstacles to restrict the current rural consumer behavior health to fast develop, they mainly include that rural land system is not perfect, the circulation of rural market development is lag, the rural public finance system is not perfected and rural social security system is backward and so on. To break the system obstacles, guide and promote rural consumer behavior health rapid development, it must break the existing system shackles, expand consumer demand especially consumer demand as the core in the system innovation. According to improve rural consumer ability and rural consumption to promote the consumption structure of rural residents, optimize and innovate consumption pattern, improve consumption environment work as the key. According to reform the taxation system, reform income distribution system, transform government functions and the rural pension, medical, education and other important areas of reform of mechanism of system work as a driving force. According to the upgrade of traditional consumer goods, emerging consumer goods, service consumption, rural areas the consumer market and new consumption patterns and consumer related infrastructure work as main point in order to speed up the formation rural residents consumption growth and structural adjustment of long-term mechanism.3. Suggestions on policiesPut forward policy suggestions to promote rural consumer health rapid development based on the full text analysis and Chinese rural consumer behavior system obstacles and predict future changes, it include:(1) Reasonable investment and consumption ratio to improve rate at last.(2) Adjust income distribution mechanism to improve farmers' spending power.(3) Create a good consumption environment.(4) Guide rural consumer upgrades through the consumption policy.(5) Perfect social security system and related policy to stabilize the rural consumer expectations.(6) Perfect rural consumption market system and energetically develop modern logistics mode.(7) Reduce the cost of goods to ensure the rural consumer rights and interests.4.InnovationsAccording to analyze the influence factors of rural consumer behavior and the system reasons seem as the main reasons to research and it throughout the entire study process.There are innovative points:(1) Reveal and prove the substantive changes in rural consumer behavior by analyzing the basic characteristics of consumer behaviors. In the paper, there are the State Space Model and Kalman Filtering Calculation method based on co-integration analysis. It makes parameter estimation in the main characteristics of rural consumer behavior, which include in the income sensitivity and cross time consumption choice and precautionary saving motivation factors. Then analysis the track of rural consumer behavior characteristic changes to reveal the essence of rural consumer behavior change.(2) Clear up the mechanism by affecting the rural consumer behavior by the factors of system and combined with empirical test. This Paper studies the reason of changes which take place in the perspective of rural consumer behavior changes, analyzes the influence of rural consumer behavior by some factors of system such as the basic system for rural operations, the rural commodity circulation system, the rural social security guarantee system, and reveals the mechanism of system change in rural consumer behavior and tested.(3) Build the system dynamic model of rural consumer behavior and predict. The paper analyze by studying the system of rural consumer behavior, and construct the system dynamics model which be introduced in important policy variables to reflect the mechanism which affected by the institutional factors of rural consumer behavior. Establish relationship between variables function calculation by using actual statistics data and predict the developed trend of Chongqing rural consumer behavior. Evaluate quantificationally the influence in the direction of relevant policy through the system simulation test to the system model debugging policy parameters of rural consumer behavior under different institutional environment.
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