| GPA (Government Procurement Agreement) is an effective multilateral framework of rights and obligations with respect to laws,regulations,procedures and practices regarding government procurement with a view to achieving greater liberalization and expansion of world trade and improving the international framework for the conduct of world trade.GPA by WTO members voluntarily signed, currently has14members including the United States and the European Union, a total of41countries and area signed agreement. In2001China joined the WTO and promised to soon join the negotiation of GPA. As a result, on December28,2007, China submitted to join GPA application and initial offer, this is indicating China is formal start to join the GPA negotiation process. Until now the negotiation process, our country have some differences with other countries in opening degree of problems. Therefore, in the Chinese government procurement market opening degree and the time is bound to form a complex international game situation. After joining the GPA China will open government procurement market, its impact on national and regional industrial development will be a "double-edged sword", both opportunities and challenges after joining GPA:government procurement of some domestic policy functions will be weakened, the domestic industry market openness will be greatly strengthened, relevant industry is facing competitive upgrade brought enhance independent innovation and international market development opportunities, also will face the international competition under the framework of GPA environmental impact and challenge. In the accession to the GPA context and situation, we should make full and thorough understanding of foreign GPA content, to within the depth of study and research the domestic government procurement characteristics and competitiveness of related industries and the immanent connection between, for the full answer join GPA fully prepared.This paper based on the internal and external environment and situation, On the relationship between joining GPA and industry development in China as the research object, analyses industrial base of joining GPA and on the impact of industry, in the GPA, the government procurement and industry development based on the research of the trinity.This paper mainly uses the theories and empirical analysis of the method of combining research to join the government procurement agreement on China's industry development, put forward to answer strategy. Research on the ideas as follows:Based on the background and the reality understanding, analysis and the determination of research themes, clear the research purpose and significance; the related research are reviewed, grasp the current research status; set up a theory model on the research object of theoretical analysis, text analysis provides basis; through econometric analysis, use transnational panel data study provide practice basis; to strengthen the empirical analysis dynamics, taking Shandong as an example for analysis; to join GPA already selected for analysis of major countries in reference to; in front of the proposed based on prospective, countermeasures and suggestions; finally, in the main analysis based on the summary of the thesis, and suggest directions for future research. The main innovation of this paper can be summarized as:The first, establish the industry after joining GPA competition between Stackberg model and a model of evolutionary game theory, from short-term and long-term two respects analysed join GPA to what industry produces positive effect, negative effect on what industry. And from theoretic argumentation to join GPA to disparate industry the impact will be due to industry government procurement dependence, industrial competitiveness of the different underlying assumptions.Second, based on the theory of demand and competitive system influencing industry development, the article annotates industry development from two aspect (industrial growth scale, industrial exportation) After a detailed elaboration of GPA's influence on machine-made foundation to the industrial growth and the industrial exportation, the article, profiting from Rajan and Zingales(1998) cross term measurement thought, selects10countries which has joined GPA as Belgium, Germany, Denmark, Spain and so on as study object to examine the different influences on industrial growth and the exportation with whether joins GPA because of the degree of dependency of various industries to the government procurement and the differences between industrial competitive powers, by using the transnational kneading board data, which introduce the cross term of industry dependency level of government procurement with whether joins GPA and the cross term variable of the industrial competitive power with whether joins GPA.Third, in order to carry on the reckoning of the government procurement scale, the article designs three kinds of different statistical caliber at present of our country and under the GPA frame. It estimates and analysis the government procurement scale and structure after joined GPA by taking Shandong as the example.Fourth, the article gives a diagnosis research on the GPA influence on our country industry development. Taking Shandong as the example, the article expounds the influences of joining GPA regarding the Shandong Province correlation industry and the government procurement, to summary the manufacturing industry, service industry, the engineering market mechanism and degree of openness and reckoning the industrial international competitive power.Fifth, in the theoretical and the diagnosis analysis foundation, modeling the main countries who has joined GPA, the article gives the basic principles which our country should grasp and the foresightedness, strategically, the pointed countermeasure suggestions.This article's main research conclusions are:First, in the question of joining GPA, by using gambling thought to analyze the advantages and disadvantages in present stage of our country, the research has discovered:Speaking of the short-term, if China joins GPA, the developed countries obtain much more income than our country industry. Our country can obtain mostly1/3international market, and this1/3market share acquisition based on our country Government complete rational supposition condition. In fact, in the implementation, as a result of very many uncertainty factors, we can actually obtain far less than ideal. This also explained that China's joining in GPA takes more advantageous in the short-term to the developed countries.The industry obtain promotion not only depend own competitive power but also the government procurement, the more strongly the competitive power, more dependence on the government's purchase, bigger income. Therefore, if the industrial is strong enough to make profit in GPA, the government should open it, vice versa. The government should take the protective measures temporarily, and takes the corresponding measure to promote its own competitive power unceasingly. When this industrial competitive power satisfies the controlled condition, then open it to GPA.Excessively degrees of dependency on the government purchase hindrance industry own competitive power enhancement. Therefore, if the government wants more industries to be able to make a profit after join GPA agreement, the government should suitably reduce the industry dependence on government's purchase and drive the industry survives in the market free competition environment.Second, the article selects countries which have joined GPA as Belgium, Germany, Denmark, Spain and so on as the object of study, uses the transnational kneading board data to examine the difference and influence on industrial between joining GPA or not. The real diagnosis result indicates that.After joining GPA, compared with the industrial competitive power, level of dependency on government procurement affects the industrial growth much obviously. The more the government's protection, the less the industrial expansion. That is, the industrial which has high level dependence on the government procurement is more easily to suffer the GPA impact. With it opposite, compares the level of dependence on the government procurement, the industrial competitive power can promote more obvious exportation even if the industrial has a high government procurement dependence. Also the industrial exportation receives small impact from GPA.Speaking of the industrial growth angle, it is not suitable to open the industrial which carries on deep dependence on the government procurement, unless this industrial's competitive power is high enough. In other words, the growth of the industrial which carries on deep dependence on the government and has strong competitive power receives small impact from GPA.Third, in current time, manufacturing industry suffer relatively less influence from joining GPA than the service industry and the engineering works. In the development phase as well as under the correlation system restriction, our country service industry participates mainly in the home and experiences little international competition. The knowledge intensity modern service industry system is not especially mature, and it is very difficult to compete with the overseas enterprises in the international government procurement market. Therefore, we should highly discrete and take to be supposed to service industry opening competition situation. Speaking of the engineering works, on one hand, joining GPA can help the international project enterprise to be advantageous enters the domestic market, while the domestic enterprise's "walk-space" is extremely limited; On the other hand, joining GPA can develop the engineering environment, promote the native business management and the technical promotion, moreover will force the domestic enterprise to strengthen the region division of labor and the cooperation, to promote the flowing of elements of production. Fourth, joining GPA brings the coexisting of challenge and opportunity which develop the economic society. The key is to complete the full plan ahead of time and process the good challenge and the opportunity contradictory relations. The opening of the government procurement market should act according to our country economy level of development, various professions development conditions and the industrial policy need. The open order and the degree should be determined scientifically, gradually, moderately. The time and the rhythm of the opening of the government procurement market must profit from the developing nations experiences and to unify our country national conditions, to use the reasonable exception clause, to proceed in an orderly way and strive for a longer transition-period. The admittance of the overseas supplier should be implemented gradually. We should implement the constitutive opening strategy in the market open domain, opens the professions and the departments which were in fact opened and those which have the international competitive power. Simultaneously we must speed up the industry reforming, promote our country industry international competitive power, and unceasingly consummate the government procurement system and the related legal laws and regulations.
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