Asymmetric Effects Of Monetary Policy On Sectors By Agent Model

In the Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of2011, the government conveyed the tone and route of the economic work of the next period. These macroeconomic goals depended on the rational and effective formulation and implementation of economic policy. Therefore the government focused on strengthening macroeconomic regulation and control to make sure that it can reflect the flexibility, target, and forward-looking of economic policy.China's monetary policy is unique. Compared to the case of high market interest rates in foreign countries, the interest rate channel of monetary policy in China is not smooth. Therefore, the state intervention in the financial markets rely more heavily on the indicator of money supply, which also acts intermediate target of China's monetary policy. Additionally, it is also the focus of our concern that in which way and to which extent, the interest rates, deposit reserve ratio, open market operations, as well as other tools of monetary policy regulated by the government will affect the operation of the national economy.System dynamics, input-output analysis, simultaneous equation model, computable general equilibrium model have been commonly used in the analysis of economic policy, especially the monetary policy. They get the empirical findings of the effectiveness of economic policy by way of solving the equations, or establishing models and time series. Compared to these traditional methods, this paper develops the theory of B-4issue of Intelligent Space and proposes the definitions of Decoupling Agent, Combined Issue Solution, and Autonomous Intensity, which makes explorations in the area of economic policy research as follows.(1Establishes the macro-economic system for monetary policy simulation, refering to input-output tables consist of42sectors in2007. The input-output relationship of the production sector is initialized and updated through the consumption coefficient. The Agents include Function Agents which pursue maximum of self-benefit, Coordination Agents which adjust the resources configuration and Control Agents which intervene indirectly on economic activities. Furthermore, the Central Bank Agent and Commercial Bank Agent which are essential to monetary policy conduction could be designed specifically. The simulation results by Agent decision-making and interaction can be consistent with the actual economic results, for the transmission of elements flow, capital flow and information flow.(2) Stresses the exogenous of the economic policies and strengthen the functions of commercial bank credit. When the deposit-taking financial institutions act as a pool of funds, it receives the policy information from central bank and performs correspondingly. Additionaly, it also makes decisions scientifically and rationally in terms of expected risk and return of loans, controls the scale of the reproduction of the industry.(3) Simulates the asymmetric effects of monetary policies that correspond to actual time, with a certain reference value. According to a top-down and bottom-up economic modeling approach, macro-monetary policies affect the micro-industry through the credit channel and macroscopic phenomena emerge from the micro-agent decision-making and collaboration results. Since step size has been set consistent with the actual time, it can correspond with the year of the economic cycle.(4) Reflects an important indicator of the energy and power sector. The industry development under monetary policies can be got through economic simulation and the analysis of input-output results in energy sector. Then, production, consumption and other information in the energy and electricity sectors can be extracted.