| The China's reform and opening has been on for 30 years, the residents'financial assets keep growing at a faster rate, wealth is expanding increasingly, the reform policies of the market system make the majority of people become the possessors and dominators of wealth. Although faced with such a huge private financial assets, there are very limited choices which are available for investing. With the deepening of the economic reform, the China's economy entered a comprehensive process of capitalization over the past decade. The reform of fortune capitalization dose not only promote a new round of economic growth, but also creates the conditions for the huge amount of national wealth and the future income streams appreciation. The process of fortune capitalization fully develops and uses financial resources, improves the financial status in the economic development and promotes the development of capital markets, which has played a crucial role for the wealth accumulation and asset inflation of our enterprises and residents. On the basis of creatively putting forward the connotation and extension of fortune capitalization, this paper proposed the analysis of the macro effect of the process of China's current fortune capitalization to the economic growth and structure optimization through three aspects: expansion of domestic demand, private investment promotion and financial structure optimization. Combined with China's current economic characteristics and using the latest macroeconomic data, this paper studied the relationship among the fortune capitalization, the capital markets and the real economy in-depth, and then explored the viable road to develop the fortune capitalization in China.This paper is organized by six chapters that analysis the process of fortune capitalization effects on economic development theoretically and empirically. The main contents of this thesis are as follows:The Introduction describes the background and significance of topics, the content structure and basic innovation.The first chapter introduces the theoretical basis of the fortune capitalization. First, this paper analyzes the connotation and extension of wealth and the general concept of capital, which is based on to propose the concept of fortune capitalization, and further to point out its connotation and extension. This thesis consider that only if the wealth possess value-added features, it can be called capital, and the process which makes the wealth into value-added capital is the process of fortune capitalization; Secondly, this paper makes a systematic review toward the historical evolution of wealth views in Western economics, and bases on this, the paper presents the evolutionary features of the Western wealth views and capital formation theory. It is obvious that almost the vast majority of Western economic thought related to the wealth theory can associate with the topic of capital formation, so that the theoretical basis of fortune capitalization is increasingly deeper; Finally, according to the demand and supply motivation of fortune capitalization, it is an objective process. No other than such ongoing process which promotes the expansion of the original amount of social capital and achieves the wealth accumulation.In the second chapter, this thesis analyzes the correlation mechanism between the fortune capitalization and economic development. Economic development is the dialectical unity of economic scales and market structure. This chapter analyzes the effect of fortune capitalization by four aspects: the mechanism of economic growth, the mechanism of wealth effect implementation, changes in the financing structure of a country's economic growth and its effects on the money demand structure and money demand function.The third chapter is about the empirical test of fortune capitalization to resident consuming. Discussing whether or not that China's stock market and real estate market have wealth effect on the perspective of wealth effect is the further verification which is made to testify the economic growth effects of fortune capitalization. First, the previous consumption theories and the domestic scholars'researches about wealth effect are reviewed, and this paper analyze the stock market and real estate market's wealth effect mechanism; Second, using Johansen cointegration test and establishing error correction model to examine China's stock market and real estate market's wealth effect; finally, establishing the dynamic consumption function with the seasonal differential delay which is based on the error-correction model to make a comprehensive analysis to our stock market and real estate market's wealth effect. Conclusion that in the bull market,China's stock price changes on the impact of consumption showed weak positive wealth effect, while in the bear market wealth effect is negative, indicating that China's stock market price is highly fluctuated and speculative, so that investors take an uncertain attitude toward their expected revenue, that will extrude the resident consuming; the China's land transaction price index has a positive wealth effect to consumption, while housing sales price fluctuation is negatively correlated with changes of consumption, the combined effects of housing prices and changes of property rights system is positive related to consumption, China's ownership reform is to a certain extent solve the problem of defining residents property rights, with the further clarity for property, the residents can feel the real wealth exists, then the rising of housing prices can generate a positive wealth effect.Chapter IV is the empirical test of fortune capitalization affects private investment. This chapter is based on the private investment steady-state model of fortune capitalization, using China 1978-2008 annual data for the sample, and using principal component analysis, autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and bound test methods to make a cointegration estimates for China's private investment growth and the actual output level, state-owned investment growth, user cost of capital, fortune capitalization efficiency and scale indicators. Estimates show that private investment presents a long-term balance of positive correlation with real output, state-owned investment and fortune capitalization efficiency, negative correlation with the scale of fortune capitalization. Financial development and the level of financial innovation raise and the direct financing proportion increases which are conducive to the channel of fortune capitalization can attract more private sector investment capital. At present, the narrow investment channels in China's financial markets, the lack of financial products varieties, the bank credit does not support private sector enough, these causations suppress the growth of private investment. Capital markets can effectively start private investment; the financial expansion should be based on efficiency and quality, if so that can really promote private investment and economic growth.Chapter V starts off the perspective of the financing structure, combined with China's reality system and macroeconomic policy, based on the research of the correlation between financing structure and economic growth, blend variable factor into the system, using annual panel data to comprehensively reflect the China's fortune capitalization and system acting together that put impact on economic growth. The results show that our provincial data support that direct financing is positively related with economic growth, while indirect financing and economic growth are negatively related. The hypothesis that ownership restructuring will enable flow credit funds from the state sector to the efficient private sector has been verified. In considering the impact of price factors, the direct financing market is able to enlarge the stock market price risk, while indirect financing market functions in smoothing price fluctuations and achieving stable economic growth. We believe that the China should make efforts to ensure the balanced development between direct financing market and indirect financing market, and focus on improving direct financing proportion on the basis of strengthening risk management, meanwhile, work to adjust the ownership structure and financial system reform of western regions, that will bring the national economy develop coordinately and stably.Chapter VI use statistical methods to introduce the status quo of fortune capitalization development in China's, by international comparison, we found that, at this stage of fortune capitalization process, China's economy monetization ratio is too high, the development of financial liberalization is still in its infancy, added with low level of privatization and the lack of liquidity in capital markets; under the further analysis toward the capital market structure, this paper argues that the China's capital market has a lower proportion of direct financing, underdeveloped corporate bond markets, non-balanced development between small-medium banks and state-owned commercial banks, and significant regional development differences. To solve the above problems, this paper argues that in the future fortune capitalization process, China should strive to develop the security market, improve the proportion of direct financing, establish the property rights institutional mechanisms that can contribute to wealth creation, establish the financial innovation system and strengthen risk prevention and control at the same time, and alert the occurrence of economy bubbles.
|
PDF Full Text Request