Risk Control Strategies On Pledge By Warehouse Receiplt Of Forestry Products

With the rapid development of logistics finance, it is hot research theme on how to connect the finance industry, forestry and modern logistic then to promote the growth of the modern forestry. The emerging of the commercial mode of warehouse receipt pledge in forest products satisfies the needs of all parts. It is significant to control the risk in this new mode. This thesis, based on the system theory, takes an overall and deep research on the risk of warehouse receipt pledge in forest products. The major work includes the following steps.Firstly, this paper makes a comprehensive research on the risk of warehouse receipt pledge in forest products from the angle of system theory. It analyzes the features of the risk of warehouse receipt pledge system in forest products and establishes an outline and procedures of risk analysis. The risk analysis contains two sides, risk factors and risk type. Risk factors include the exotic environment factors and interior factors. Though the number of warehouse receipt pledge system in forest products is numerous, the main are the risk of credit of forestry companies, quality of the impawned products, overseeing the impawned products, warehouse receipt, and the cost of forestry enterprises.Secondly, the system dynamics model for forest products logistics warehouse receipt pledge was constructed. The total risks of the system appeared unstable in early stage, As time passed, the risks represent stable with a slight decline, and to maintain the late in the controllable low by simulation analysis. In major risks, such as the risk of credit of forestry companies, quality of the impawned products, overseeing the impawned products, in the early stage showed fluctuation changes and keep steadily declining trend. The risk of warehouse receipt stay low and important stage. Futhermore, The cost risk of forest products enterprise which present the medium level and keep steadily declining.Thirdly, in this thesis, agent theory was applicated to forest products logistics warehouse receipt pledge system for the control of quality risk. Then, established information identification model to select the third-party logistics enterprise and the control of quality risk model in implementation process of forest products enterprise management separately. Through create profit function between the third-party logistics enterprise and forest products company, and analyzed it. using maximum principle to get the optimum solution for the control of quality risk in forest products enterprise under three conditions which third-party logistics enterprise to choose the speculation, not speculative or selective speculative.At last, Based on real options theory,the cost risks of forest products companies,which existed in logistics warehouse receipt pledge system was studied.On the basis of elaboration on realationship of uncertainty and real option, a new approach adopting of real option is proposed to solve uncertainty problem.Serval uncertainties with the features of option value are analyzed on the basis of characteristic of logistics warehouse receipt pledge system.A example of cost risk controls in wood-based panel industry is studied to give a fundamental framework of logistics warehouse receipt pledge system of forest products,which covers aspects such as risk analysis,real options identification,real options design and implementation of real options, effectiveness analysis and performance evaluation.