The Research About Financial Openness′s Risk And Its Growth Effect

Finance is the core of the morden economy and the status of which becomes so crucial in the optimum distribution of productive resources.Under the background of the economic globalization and global production factors allocation,it is inevitable to speed up the financial openness and integrate the globalization.The chinese financial openness has started along with its reform and openness and has been through more thirty years .it is worth keeping a watchful eye on which the level is the chinese financial openness and how is the coordinate with the domestic development,then what are the risks brought by financial openness and how the effect on the stability and safe of its economy and finance ,and what the status of the financial openness in crises,and how to boost the gowth,and which new challenge produced to the domestic financial regulations? The answers to those questions are so critical to the next strategy formulation. So,base on the existing literature ,the paper carries on research about the measurement of financial openness and coordination ,and exogenous riskes systems caused by it,and the role in the crises ,and the relationship with the growth,and the affect on the financial supervision. Then,comes to the next conclutions.Firstly, The paper constructs the system of financial openness by seeing the from the angle of the connotation of the financial openness, and presents the financial openness level measurement .Furtherly, the paper maks a careful study of the financial openness coordination including its conception,measurement and judgment rule. The paper selected 120 countries as research sampls and the results showed the grade of chinese financial openness is moderate,and there is discordant status between the chinese financial opneness and its domestic develepment after the enterance to the WTO,which means that relativing to the qualification the demanding by the dejure financial openness ,the domestic development is not enough somehow. the consequences are due to the government intervention to the market mechanism of financial development and lead to the financial marketization insufficient development. Additionally, because the chinese government implementary the ways of utilization of foreign funds to promote its technology progress and to lose sight of the interactivity between the financial industries openness and the capital and financail account liberalization,but actually ,this strategy exceedingly pursues the amount of the capital and ignore its quality and does not bring about the real technical pregress. Under the joint action of these factor, the domestic development is not qualitifed to the speed and quality demanding by the offical financial openness.Secondly, Based on risk index system of caused by financial openness,this papers presents the"3δ"principle as the measure of risk evaluation and construct a ANN risk-forecast model. Then, to apply the principle and model to chinese the financial openness practice,and the reslut shows the risk state rendered by the financial openness is safty. And to make use of the exogenous risk data from the 26 main developing countries to examine the model. and the papers apply the partial least-squares regression to analyse the effect on the economic and financial stability and safety, the research result is conform to the actual of the 26 samples. the outcome indicates that"3δ"principle and the partial least-squares regression and the early warning model can be qualified measures to the risk evaluation and forecast. and have practicability and maneuverability, which maybe be a good means for the competent authorities to supervise the risk caused by the financial openness.Thirdly, the paper constructs a simple difference model to investigate the impact of FDI behavior changes on the balance of payments. The research indicates along with HFDI increasing in domestic market, the level of net exports brought by FDI will be incessantly put down and causes the decreasing of the surplus of balance of payments, to make matters worse,following with the increasing proportion of HDI in FDI ,the net effect of balance of payments brought by the FDI will very likely become deficit, which even lead to the balance of payments crisis.Fourthly, the paper sets up a crisis model including the factor of government subsidies,the unfavorable external shocks,international interest rate and financial openness,and it indicats that the subsidies under the government-dominated economywhich did not affect the total factor productivity (TFP) can put forward the gowth but it will cause the over-investment and creat the asset bubbles, this will maked the domestic economy more fragile under the unfavorable external shocks and the variation of international interest rate.Financial openness will intensify this fragile and is one of important elements of crisis. but the primary cause of the crisis will be due to the fault of the model of domestic development. the test result of the crisis model by the the numerical simulation and domerstration based on the Malysia sample data from the 1970 to 2010 can sufficiently supports the views deduced from the model. the reaserch is helpful to make industrial strategy under the financial openness.Fifthly, based on the endogenous economic growth theory,this paper present a decomposeing modle of the effec of financial openness on the growth, which can reviews the integration effect brought by the financil openness on the growth. Then to use the practice of chinese financial openness to test this model, the result shows that the integration effect brings by the financial openness is positive,but the effect on the growth brougt by official commitment is much greater than the actual practice one`s due to the domestic development dropping behind of the quality and space of the commitment level, what `s worse,the effect on the growth produced by the actual practice is seem to be degressing along with the deeping of financial openness.so,how to speed up the demostic economy and finnace reforming to promote the development to adapt the requirement of financial openness, which is the great matter in the future.Finally, the paper also investigates the effect of the financial openness on the financial supervision,and puts forward that the developing countries should build up the Macro- prudential supervision system as soon as possible . Then, the paper according to the practical in China and considers that the chinese authority should estabilish a special department to undertake the macro-prudential supervision functions . Meanwhile,the peper also give some significative to how to structure the Macro-prudential supervision framework,such as how to design the supervision tool according to the peculiarity of the chinese systematic risk and System importance institutions,and set up the Deposit Insurance System,and how to make effective cooperation between the macro-prudential supervision policy and the macroeconomy-control and so on.