A Research On Problems In Chinese Structural Tax Slash

Tax revenue is a topic rich in content and full of changes. In history, all governments had been employing every means to ensure the steady growth of the main component of national fiscal revenue, i.e. tax revenue or issuing various tax policies as an important tool to effectively bring national fiscal revenue policy into effect. Since its birth in Mesopotamia and ancient Egypt, tax system has evolved with a string of historical events into what it is now. Today, different tax systems are adopted in different countries, but they have something in common, i.e. they not only concern the practical economic benefits of each household, but also have become a critical part of the National System of Macro-economic Control. Meanwhile, the evolvement of tax system is influenced by some social and economic activities. Therefore, with the further interdependence between Chinese economy and the world economy and the expansion of the market-oriented economic system reform with socialist characteristics, it is imperative to study how to deal with the key issues occurring in the taxation field and how to properly understand the new changes in tax system.After a review of the development in taxation theory, this study briefly introduces the relationship between tax revenue and economic growth and clearly states the importance of keeping the tax system reform in pace with the economic and social development. In addition, the study gives a detailed analysis on the prediction of tax revenue and sets up a single forecast model based on the Grey Theory and a combined forecast model made up of the Elman Recursive Neural Network Model, the Auto-regressive Model with policy as the dummy variable, the ARIMA(1, 1, 1) Model of Time Series and the Multi-factor Regression Model. Results show that these models can simulate the varying tendency of the total tax revenue and make a satisfactory forecast despite their own flaws to some degree; the combined forecast model can better reduce forecast errors than the single forecast model; the two models prove to one degree or another that among all factors affecting taxation results, policy has a very significant effect on tax revenue.Based on the above analysis and an overview of changes in tax structure, the study first summarizes the evolving process of the post-reform-and-opening-up structural tax reduction policies in China. Grounded on numerous empirical literatures and by the creative use of the association rules data mining analytical method, the quantitative analysis of correlation degree is conducted on the data of the main taxes before and after the release of the latest structural tax reduction policy and thus the impact factors are gained and the effects of the tax reduction policy on the main taxes and the total tax revenue are explored. Second, the study employs fussy soft sets to form a combined forecast model made up of three forecast methods, i.e. the Support Vector Regression Machine (SVRM), the Grey Model (GM) and the Nonlinear Least-squares Regression (NLSR). Based on the combined forecast model, the relationships among tax revenue growth, gross domestic product (GDP), energy consumption per unit of GDP and energy consumption per unit of tax revenue are analyzed and the contrastive analysis on tax revenue and energy consumption is conducted between the secondary industry featuring high pollution and high energy consumption and the third industry featuring new industries. Thus, from the perspective of transforming mode of economic growth, the new trend in tax policy can be predicted, which can better serve the perfection of tax system. Finally, the major points in this study are summarized.