A Measuremtn Research On The Transformable Stages Of Economic Development Pattern In China

Economic development pattern refers to a way or model through which different factor inputs and combination could make the economic, social, natural and science & technology system coordinate development. Economic development is a continuously evolutionary process from low to high levels, and different stages of the economic development require suitable development patterns, therefore, stepping towards a higher stage of economic development definitely demands for transformation of the economic development pattern.Since the start of reform and opening up more than 30 years ago, profound changes have taken place in China's economic development. China has enjoyed fast economic growth. The livelihood of its people has markedly improved. The contribution of technical progress to economic growth has increased dramatically. Our comprehensive strength and international competitiveness have enhanced remarkably. However, in the process of economic development, such problems as the gap between rich and poor, the weak technological innovation capability, and the deteriorating ecological environment, have become bottlenecks which restrict the healthy, rapid and sustainable development of our economy. At present, it's urgent to accelerate the transformation of economic development pattern.Since 1980s, China has started the exploration to the transformation of the economic development pattern. How to understand and evaluate the transformation track and current transforming status and to what extent? Which stage should our economic development be located? It's not only a theoretical problem to be solved, but also a practical need to accelerate the transformation of economic development pattern.This paper applies some theories such as western economic growth theory, development economics theory, game theory, sustainable development economics, recycling economics, and statistics. Combining with the history track from the developed countries'transformation of economic development pattern and the characteristics of China economic development, this paper construct a measurement mode to the transformation stage of economic development pattern. It also combines qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, normative analysis and empirical analysis, adopts SPSS 17.0 and EXCEL data processing software to analysis the transformation and its stage of economic development pattern. The main findings are as follows:(1) Transforming economic development pattern is complex systems, including economic, social and natural and technological systems. The transformation of economic development pattern depends not only on the development level of the four systems, but on the coordination of these systems. In other words, the transformation of economic development pattern is a unity of development and coordination of the four systems.(2) Research on the compatibility mechanism within the transformation stakeholders of economic development pattern shows that transformation of economic development pattern in China holds its historical inevitability. The study also reveals that transforming our economic development pattern is a long and difficult process.(3) According to the connotation of the transformation of economic development pattern, this paper establishes economic, social, natural and technological indicator systems, and also introduces the definition of the harmony degree of the economic-social-natural-technology system, and gives out the corresponding measurement to the harmony degree.(4) This paper divided the transformation of economic development pattern into 5 stages:the unchanged stage, the preparation stage, the initial change stage, the moderate change stage, the highly change stage. Through the empirical analysis to the economic development track of some countries, this paper sums up the rules and features of them, and gives out the assumption that these countries economic development tracks are convergent. This paper also calculates and determines the boundary value of different transformation stages.(5) Combining with subjective and objective weighting, this paper finds out the index weight to the transformation of economic development pattern. Due to the dynamic process, changeable objectives, unclear boundary of the transformation stage, it's necessary to give out the general assessment to the transformation of economic development pattern. According to the complicated system and the multiple factors, this paper constructs the measurement mode to the transformation of economic development pattern based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. (6) Measurements of the transformation stages of economic development pattern indicate that in the 14 years evaluation period the economic, social, natural and technological systems all have achieved significant improvement. However, the coordination among these systems is not good enough, and there are some fluctuations, so the transformation of our economic development pattern has only limited achievement. Within the evaluation period, year 1995 to 1999 is the second stage or the preparation stage of transforming China's economic development pattern, and 2000 to 2003 is the third stage or the initial stage of transformation, while in 2004 and 2005, due to both domestic and international factors, the transformation slowed down, but from 2006 to 2008, more transformation efforts got the situation improved.(7) Analyzing the transformation of economic development pattern in some typical provinces and regions in China reveals that the transformation in all these regions has been enhanced, but the levels are different. The four systems in developed areas have high development, but low coordination; in contrast, the underdeveloped areas have relatively high coordination but low development. Overall, the transformation in developed areas is better than the underdeveloped ones.(8) According to the Current Curve Forecast Model, the transformation of our economic development pattern will make slow progress, and the annual increase rate is 2.79%.