| Economic development promotes the rapid expansion of China's container terminals, the next 10 years will be the critical period when container stride from the "large port" into the "strong port". However, extensive development mode make against the strength of China's port. Therefore, to enhance container strength, the intensive development must be focused on and productivity must be increased, depending on promoting efficiency to achieve changes.This paper had pondered the challenge which was proposed to the port productivity based on the container scale growth's ARIMA (0,1,0) autoregressive moving average forecast model. At the same time, productivity of Chinese main container terminals had been estimated by utilizing SFA and DEA method, include technical efficiency, total factor productivity(TFP) and its'composing, Malmquist-index- total factor productivity(TFP) and its'composing. TFP changes as well as regional TFP fluctuation were discussed and technical efficiency of exogenous factors was still studied in this paper. The details were as following:â‘ Total factor productivity measure model including four input variables was put forward with the aid of stochastic front production (TFP) model in order to research inputs factors's influencing degree and direction, and the characteristics of TFP changes and fluctuations in China's container terminals. At the same time, the fluctuations in the composition of the regional TFP as well as local disparity were discussed. The results showed that:1) TFP presented rising tendency in China's container ports. thereinto, technology advancement increased steadily; improvement of technical efficiency was obvious; scale efficiency SEC changed gently; economic scale maintained at the steady state; resource allocation efficiency showed negative growth. 2) Regional diversity of TFP composition was obvious. The average technology advancement growth in five regions was low, but the change tendency of region technology efficiency improvement was the same, the average increased range was above 10%. In addition to Yangtze River Delta region of scale efficiency change is downtrend, other regions fluctuated. 3) For each investment factor, equipment was positive to efficiency promotion of container terminals, the following was labor workers, while serving staff demonstrated negative impact. Berths presented the strongly negative effect. The large-scale infrastructural facilities had manifested the resources waste and the efficiency sacrifice to a certain extent.â‘¡With the aid of the data envelope analysis, The measure model of productivity change of container terminals were brought forward, primarily research the input slacks and optimal output in China's container terminals. The following conclusions were arrived:1) The measurement results based on DEA-CCR model showed that individual difference of technical efficiency was obvious in Container Terminal Company, and input-output efficiency was extremely imbalance. The measure results of cross-section data in 2007 indicated that production output was insufficiency while the scale was surplus and the waste of resources was common. 2) Container's TPF change index of DEA-Malmquist in sample period and decomposition results showed that, technical efficiency, technological progress and scale efficiency changes were characterized by fluctuations, while the overall made positive contribution to TPF productivity promotion. Malmquist TFP of port industry was greater than 1, the average growth was about 14.9%, improvement mainly stem from the promotion of synthesis technology efficiency. Malmquist TFP of Five regional ports presented growth condition, regional container port operations were in the process of continuous improvement, which the improvement of Bohai and Yangtze River Delta region were relatively prominent.â‘¢China's container terminals inner management efficiency loss model and outer economy entironment efficiency loss model based on stochastic front production function were put forward, and discussed incidence and direction which exogenous factors to technical efficiency. Study conclusion:1) Involvement of external capital caused the structure changes of stocks in container port. It manifested a positive influence to technical efficiency. Technical efficiency of foreign investment and joint venture terminal was significantly higher than the local state-owned terminals. Rate of external funding growth was lower than that of technical efficiency, there was U-inverted structure between the technology efficiency and involvement of external funding. 2) Differences in efficiency caused by differences in size were obvious, and bigger terminal had better technical efficiency. 3)Professional and technical personnel in promoting the efficiency had not been demonstrated. The primary reason was that existing level of knowledge of human resources cannot satisfy the demand of reality and the future development, followed there were varying degrees of redundancy, which is not conducive to increase the production efficiency. 4) Regional economic growth promoted container scale significantly while not promoting enhancement of technical efficiency directly. 5) Increased proportion of tertiary industry in Port city can not only improve the technical efficiency of container, also displayed a strong role for promoting container throughput.In conclusion, in order to promote China's container port TFP growth, improve technical efficiency, and enhance container port industry, some suggestions such as Promote enterprise property management in container port, introduce overseas strategic investors; strengthen internal management, focus on the effective use of inputs optimize human resource; and plan and develop orderly, conduct resources integration were put forward.
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