Housing Price Fluctuations And Its Macroeffect

China's housing system reformed and the real estate market entered into the transitional stage of double-track system when the reform working conference of the national housing system held in 1988.Material distribution of housing stopped and capitalization of housing distribution started in 1998 all over China.The real estate market had turned planning mode to market mode and full accessed to commercialization era.China real estate developed fastest since 1998 and it has some problems in the process of becoming important pillar industry of the development of the national economy. Among them, the rapidly rising house price is the focus and the core what the government, decision-making departments and circles even the whole society most concerned. Being in a new transitional period now, tremendous changes have taken place in the field of international economic and finance situation day by day. Researching the reasons of real estate price rising quickly or price bubbles and exploring related feasibility solutions is both the important content of the economic structure adjustment and an intrinsic need for the real estate sound development and the people's livelihood. So the research is of great theoretical and realistic significance.First,the paper established the local equilibrium model without credit and savings first,defined and measured the basic value of real estate goods and market bubble degree and forecasted the basic value of real estate goods and market bubble degree with models of ARMA and ARIMA; then this paper relaxed assumptions and further measured the basic value of real estate goods and market bubble degree under the condition of having savings and without credit. In addition, this paper expounded the extreme form of the real estate price fluctuation such as the definition, classification of the bubbles, other measure methods and some cases.After analyzing the reasonable price being the basic value for real estate goods, the paper had the theoretical analysis and the empirical test on the factors that influenced the real estate price by establishing VAR model respectively:the land market supply structure, the real estate market supply structure, the macro economic variables and the monetary policy.In land market areas, about the relationship of land and house prices, considering only with the accounting cost, the proportion of land price in house price is not high, and the statement that land prices boosted the house price is not convincing. So this article changed the research angle from the land price to the land market supply structure. Analysis showed that, because of the character of the two levels of supply system in the land market, hoarding behavior in second level land market caused the actual land supply in the real estate market being far below the first level land market, and caused serious shortage in the land effective supplyment, and then pushed up the price of real estate. In addition, this paper also analyzed the land hoarding reasons, influence and the countermeasures.In addition to the supply structure of land market, the supply structure of real estate market itself had important influences on the real estate prices. Therefore, this article had the theoretical analysis and empirical test with the influence of the supply structure of real estate market on the real estate price. Results show that, our country's security room system is not perfect, and the proportion of the security room (mainly economy applicable room) in the total supply area is falling. So on one hand the security room system is difficult to exploit security function; on the other hand, nor to produce practical effect on reining house prices rising quicklyThen, this paper also studied the macroeconomic and monetary policy on the influence of real estate prices. Analysis shows that, the macroeconomic variables had the influnce on real estate price through GDP, investment in real estate development, residents' disposable income and so on. And all the macroscopical factors and monetary policy factors pushed the house price rising by changing the market liquidity quantity and the liquidity investment direction.After analysising the influence factors of prices, in the end the paper analysised the macro effect of the house prices fluctuation, and mainly researched the wealth effect and saving effect by establishing a panel data analysis model. Results showed that, because of the macro effect(mainly saving effect)of the house price, especially the differences in the different groups role, the better-off could get richer and the common class wealth situation would be worse. So the whole society's gini coefficient further increased, and the contradictions of the unfair distribution in the social became more prominent...