Study On The Transition To Low-Carbon Electricity In Guangdong: Pathway, Policy And Economy

One of the major challenges confronting the international community is global climate change. In order to reduce CO₂ emissions and trackle climate change, low-carbon development has been considered as the best mode for the future. Guangdong is one of most important province in China's economy and is an advanced position of China's reform and opening. In order to trackle the climate change, ensure security of economic development and energy supply, and take the responsibility of―pilot‖, Guangdong has to try the transition to low-carbon economy.Since it consumes the largest share of primary energy and had the highest level of CO₂ emission and has technical and economic possibility, the electricity sector of Guangdong has been chosen to analyze the low-carbon transition firstly. In order to analyse the transition, scenario analysis method combined with economic model has been adopted to analyse the pathways, policy and economic effects.In order to analyze the future development of electricity system of Guangdong, The history of Guangdong electricity system and its current status has been investigated, and the trend of social and economic development of Guangdong has been analysed firstly. Based on those investigations and analyses, future electricity demands in Guangdong have been projected. In additional, databases of primary energy supply and available technologies have also been biult.To analyse the possible low-carbon transition pathway, a techno-economic model has been built with the objective function of minimizing the total cost of the electricity system during the investigation. Using the model, the developments of the electricity supply system of Guangdong have been investigated under different CO₂ emission constraints. The results of investigations show that considering costs, a 25% reduction (compared with 2007 levels) in CO₂ emissions from unit electricity supply by 2020 is possible. To achieve this target, several important actions are proposed. First, increasing the capacity of nuclear power plants may contribute 54.5% to CO₂ emission reduction. Second, improving the efficiency of thermal power plants may contribute 33.6% to CO₂ emission reduction; these efficiency measures include applying USC technology, decreasing the capacity of low-efficiency coal-fired power plants, and developing natural gas power properly. Third, exploiting renewable energy, mainly wind power, may contribute 4.6% to CO₂ emission reduction. To study policy for incenting the low-carbon transition, policy analysis module has been added to the techno-economic model. By using the model, the simple policies of CO₂ tax and subsidy for renewable power have been studied. Based on the studies, an optimal integrated CO₂ tax and subsidy policy has been designed to limit the negative impacts of simple CO₂ tax policy or simple subsidy policy. By implementing the integrated policy, the development of renewable power can be incented efficiently, the development of coal-fired power plant can be inhibited, and finally realize the low-carbon transition successfully.To study the economic impacts of low-carbon transition, a macroeconomic model has been built and coupled to the techno-economic model by connecting function. Using the model, the impacts of low-carbon transition on the economy of Guangdong, the price index, and employment have been anlaysed. In additional, a simple analysis of the environmental impacts of low-carbon transition has also been done. The results show that the low-carbon transition of Guangdong electricity will significantly promote the growth of GDP and the employment, in which the manufacturing and service contribute the most. Meanwhile, the impacts of low-carbon transiton on the price indexs are not too great. In addition, the low-carbon transition can reduce the generation of air pollutants effectively, and protect the environment.