The Research On Credit Risk,Corporate Governance And Corporate Performance For Listed Companies

Changes in credit risk of listed companies are important for investors choosing, corporate governance and corporate performance, for the construction of the credit environment is also of great significance. Under the reality background of high credit risk of listed companies, it is theoretical and practical significance means for analyzing the associate of the evaluating of the credit risk, credit risk and the corporate governance, corporate performance.From this point of view, the article first gives conception of credit and its formation, evolution, makes the theoretical explanation of corporate credit by cost-benefit analysis, and further analysis credit and the process of credit evolution from the perspective of supply and demand. Then, the paper gives brief review on the method of credit assessment, using panel data, makes an empirical study on the credit risk of listed companies in China by the Logit model, cluster analysis and the KMV model.Obtained the results of the default probability, we analyze the association of the credit risk and corporate governance. Building the corresponding index system of capital structure, ownership structure, operating costs and management indicators, the article gets the mechanism of corporate governance indexes to credit risk used dynamic panel data method, similarly,we use the dynamic panel data analysis tool to get the relationship of credit risk and corporate performance. At last, from the perspective of cause and effect aspects, the paper analysis the corresponding countermeasures on status of lacking of credit.This article is divided into three parts, a total of seven chapters.The first part is the evolution of credit and credit related theories and presentations, including the first chapter, second and third chapter. The second part is the empirical part of the assessment of credit risk, credit risk and corporate governance, credit risk and corporate performance, including the Chaptersâ…£,V and VI. The third part is the status and responses of the stock market and credit deficiency, including Chapter VII.The first chapter is about credit and the evolution of credit. It includes the origination of credit; credit definition and meaning; the importance on the basis of development from the currency formation and evolution to the foundation of modern credit system; the factors of affecting credit and the study of the properties and functions of corporate credit.The second chapter is about the evolution of credit mechanism and the cost-benefit analysis. From the perspective of the evolution of credit expansion theory analysis, we first give credit characteristics and the evolution of the facts, and then from an economic point, get the evolution and characteristics of corporate credit risk using cost-benefit and supply-demand methods, demonstrate the process of evolution of credit system and analyze the status of our credit system. Theoretical analysis showed that: there are business credit characteristics of path dependence; business credit with the industry characteristics and phase characteristics; scale is an important factor in business credit; financial indicators can determine corporate credit conditions.The third chapter is a credit risk assessment model and method, is a chapter of methods summary and introductory. In this chapter, we review models for credit risk and give the most important three models: the Logit model, classify analysis and KMV model. The chapter also describes types and features of credit risk management models, gives a detailed description of Merton model, and finally makes out a detailed discussion about the thinking and calculation of the KMV model.The fourth chapter is the empirical research about credit risk of listed companies. The article uses Logit model, cluster analysis and the KMV model for an empirical study of the credit risk of listed companies, and compares the Logit model and cluster analysis. We verify the performance of the models through the data out of sample, and then use the model prediction method giving all the credit risk indicators of listed companies, used the probability of default to measure. In the KMV model, we analyze the credit risk of listed companies by market value estimated, equity volatility estimated, liability measurement, asset growth forecast, the default point and so on. the results of empirical analysis show that the overall accuracy rate of the Logit model explaining the credit risk is 87%, which is a good result; and cluster analysis determining the accuracy of credit risk is relatively low, the highest only to 74%; the KMV model giving the probability of default and default distance can well describe the change and fluctuating of the credit risk of listed companies.Chapter V is a dynamic panel data analysis of credit risk and corporate governance. The article explain credit risk indicators changes by corporate governance indicators, study the mechanism of fluctuations of the relevant indicators to credit risk by building dynamic panel data model, demonstrate credit risk formation mechanism of listed companies respectively from the capital structure, solvency, operational capacity, power management, management education and many other dimensions.The empirical results show that: First, capital structure and credit risk seems irrelevant; Second, the relationship between ownership structure and credit risk is definite: ownership concentration and credit risk is of a negative correlation, while the state share proportion and the credit risk presents in the same direction, so the result is significant; Third, operating costs associate with the credit risk, as the main expenses of the financial costs, administrative expenses, marketing costs, only the financial costs and credit risks is in the same direction change, administrative expenses and marketing expenses are negative correlated with credit risk; Fourth, high age of the management makes the credit risk increasing, the greater the age of management, the higher credit risk will be, it is in line with "59 phenomenon" logic. In addition, power management, shareholding and other indicators are not significantly related to credit risk and when we analyze the credit risk of corporate, age is an important index; finally, the longer company listed on, the higher credit risk.Chapter VI is a empirical analysis about credit risk and corporate performance. in this chapter, we build the credit risk to the business performance model. First, the article divides the corporate performance into stock prices earnings and financial incomes, analyze credit risk to investors by the annual rate of stock returns, to shareholders by earnings per share, and to the profitability of assets by the use of financial indicators. It is the same that we use dynamic panel data to measure the model again.The major findings of this chapter are: corporate performance has path-dependent features; credit risk and corporate performance have a significant negative correlation; a high proportion of state-owned shares will reduce the company performance. Those show that the share reform of listed companies in the performance optimization is beneficially; the longer company exist, the worse the performance. The fact that, further efforts are need on regulatory and governance of listed companies,Chapter VII is about the fact that China's lack of credit and corresponding countermeasures. The paper first introduces the credit status of the stock market, further the cause, and finally gives according recommendations to improve the domestic stock market.Under the present conditions of general credibility lack of listed companies, the marketing credit relying on the government, institution construction, legal system improvement are the most important ways. On the hand of Improving the legal system, the same meaning events, the corresponding norms of legal measures; it is important to dilute the administrative supervision, and strengthen legal protection; it is also need to establish credibility and avoid the government dishonesty. On the other hand of system construction, we must first establish the modern enterprise system with clear property rights, which is, support the state-owned shares and share-trading policy; Second, establishing employee stock ownership plan, achieves effective supervision, establishes employee general assembly, to achieve supervision mechanism; Third, it is important to improve the listing and delisting system, improve listed companies delisting norms, increase penalties to irregular corporate; Finally, it is need to standardize information disclosure system.In summary, the study of stock market credit problems has a long way to go. This article gets a preliminary study on the point of the credit risk evaluation, the corresponding of credit risk with corporate governance and firm performance, but we must admit that, the database of listing company in default should to be perfect, and further improvements are needed on the supervision and management system of listed companies, because of the credit evaluation methods forever depending on the process of data systems improvement and maturing. This paper is just some preliminary discuss, and the follow-up study could include the improvement of credit risk assessment model, the improvement of the stock market information disclosure system and so on.I extremely hope this study will give researchers a reference.