Quantitative Evaluation Method Of The Risk In Forigen Aid Engineering Project

The dissertation, in the owner's point of view, focuses on the quantative evaluation method of risk in engineering projects on the basis of current research work.Considering the particularity of assistance projects, in order to improve theory research of engineering risk management.The dissertation analyses the particularity,execution procedure,evaluation method of the assistance projects. Furthermore, system analysis is conducted on the risk types, characteristics, measuring index and effecting elements of the assistance projects.On the basis of analyzing of Contracting patters and development trends (EPC) of the assistance projects, objective weight are determined by entropy method out of weighting method based on the "difference motivation" principle, subjective proportions are determined by subjective weighting method based on the "function motivation" principle, and comprehensive compacting weighting method adopted to combine the above-mentiond two methods, Contracting patter models of the assistance projects have been worked out based on comprehensive weighting method. Case analysis has been put forward to test and certify the accuracy and efficiency of the method.On the basis of introducing the estimating method, cost contents and costing method of the assistance project, analysis the affecting factors of cost risk. Analyzing the affecting factors qualitatively and quantitatively of engineering cost from the statistics data of cost index. Furthermore, .considering the complexity and non-linear of the forecasting system, Gray forecasting, time series regression and cubic index smoothing method are adopted separately to set up forecasting models of cost trends, in the end, standard deviation method adopted to distribute the proportion and set up combined forecasting models to forecast cost risk. The forecasting result passes the deviation test, indicating that the forecasting models can be used practical work.. On the above basis, study the early warning system, and set up early warning system index and early warning models. Case analysis has been put forward to analyse ,caculate and certify.On the basis of construction term risk factors, BANT net techniques and risk analysis theory are combined to assess the term risk. And term risk models of the assistance project worked out on the basis of BANT-GERT method.The dissertation summarizes the research work conducted as above, point out the inadequate matters in the research.