Studies On Theory And Model Of Bubble Economy

This dissertation, from the point of view of asset and asset market, makes analysis and study on the basic contents of bubble economy theory, and in accordance with the stock market of shanghai, develops stock asset pricing model and the metrical model for the bubble economy of stock market, putting forward the method of determining, judging and pre-controlling bubble economy. In authentic proof, with the finding of negative bubble phenomenon and pre-control occasion, direction and extension, a creative research result is achieved, and valuable policy suggestions for preventing bubble economy are put forth.This dissertation consists of four parts and nine chapters. The first part is introduction, focusing on looking back on and studying bubble economy theory; and the second part covers bubble economy theory, emphasizing on bringing forth new ideas on the basis of digesting this theory. The third part is positive analysis, applying the results of studying, understanding and creating into practice to examine the scientific significance and effectiveness, and at the same time acquiring new understanding and inspiration to bring forth more new idea; and the fourth part is policy suggestions, the research purpose of which is to solve the two kinds of problems found in practice, in order to make further progress in study and creation. One problem is now to utilize the research results, and the other arises in practice. All these will be helpful to further study and recreation.This first chapter of the dissertation looks back on the Holand Tulip bubble which is the earliest one in the history, France Mississippi bubble and England south sea bubble, Japan stork market bubble and real estate bubble, and America net stock bubble as well. Based on this, this chapter makes general introduction to the study of domestic bubble economy, such as: the idea of bubble economy theory, asset pricing model, bubble economy model, the relation between bubble economy and macro-economy, and then analyzes the forward position of the research of bubble economy, determining the research contents, difficult points and research approaches of the dissertation.The second chapter discusses the basic contents of bubble economy theory, including the principal conception of bubble economy, and firstly puts forward the idea of sub-bubble; provides the definition of bubble and firstly puts forth the testing method and formula of bubble; provides the definition of bubble economy; puts forward the law of the transformation from quantitative change to qualitative change, and the weighted law from individual to general bubble. All these are the basis on which we develop stock asset pricing model and stock market bubble economy model. The third chapter discusses three types of bubble economy models, which play an important role in bubble economy theory. The bubble economy model is not only the symbolic achievement of bubble economy study, but also a powerful weapon for bubble economy theory study and the prevention of bubble practice. Three stock pricing models are provided: time sequence addition model, chaotic model and cyclic change model, which enrich the technology of asset pricing model. On the basis of the analysis of asset pricing model, the idea of establishing bubble economy model and the testing method of model stability are put forth, providing technical support for positive analysis.In the fourth chapter, the emerging, expanding and destructing law of asset bubble are further studied, according to bubble economy theory discussed in the second chapter, and risk factors and statistical inference principles are used to firstly provide bubble expansion coefficient and thus the critical value of bubble from quantitative change to qualitative change is determined. System theory is then used to give out determining and judging methods of bubble economy.The macro-factor, trade factor and corporation factor, which affect the asset price, are analyzed in detail, supporting the development of selecting explanatory variables for asset pricing model...