Research On Agricultural Risk Management On The State-owned Farm

State-owned farms have the advantages of large area, integrated management, strong technical power, high machinery degree, high industrial degree and comparative advantage in scale and technology. The purpose of this dissertation is to find feasible methods to promote the socialization process of agricultural risks and decrease the damages and increase farmer' s income through the research of agricultural risks management in state-owned farms. The research is presented by the combination of the practical experiences of state-owned farms and the theories of agricultural risks management and market oriented, based on a comprehensive and systematic analyses of interrelated materials home and abroad. The research object of this presentation is to make analyses and evaluation on agricultural risks on state-owned farms and classifies the risks into three categories: natural risks, economic risks, social and technological risks. The research scope is centered on the research of agricultural risks management on state-owned farms, meanwhile, the problems of national macro-administration policies on agricultural risks and interrelated reforms on systems are involved in.The planting projects of overseas farms are determined by market demands, therefore, the risks are greatly diminished; The production activities focus on one main product and rely on insurance systems to reduce the risks; Agricultural cooperatives function as the foundations of agricultural production and operation, hence, solve the farmers' worries through community service; The technical promotion system, which combines agriculture, science research and education offers strong technological supports to the farms. The advantages of Chinese state-owned farms prove that Chinese state-owned farms already have the essential conditions of performing agricultural risks management, but they lack of marketing operation mechanism of risk management; the constraints of managing system makes state-owned farms lack of independence, the conscience of risk management and reciprocal agricultural insurance premium collecting system, which make it difficult in comprehensive insurance capital adjustment, therefore, the risks cannot be dispersed in maximum; meanwhile, there are no rules and regulations of agricultural risks funds' contraction and deposition and lack of means and measures on the prediction, investigation and compensation of damages.Most of the state-owned farms are located in the regions with poor natural conditions and suffer great loss of natural disaster damages. Based on the model of the effect of natural risks to regional production, the author calculated the natural disaster damages of state-owned farms,and the results are: the productivity of this region is reduced by 21,848,980,000 yuan and the final products reduced by 677,869,000 yuan. According to the theories of natural risks analysis, a practical natural risks evaluation model of agricultural production is constructed, which is a three-level escalated structure. In solving the problem of how to evaluate the technique innovation on state-owned farms an evaluation index system model on technical risks is established; meanwhile, a multiple levels illegible synthesized evaluation model is established which combines the features of every index. The evaluations on technological risks of state-owned farms are made based on these constructed models in helping constituting defensive measures to these risks. The prices of Chinese agricultural products greatly fluctuate with seasons and have the feature of short period. According to these features, the repose curve of supply and demand can be approximately represented with straight line in constructing the prices forecasting model of agricultural products. In fact, a practical prices forecast of grains produced on state-owned farms has been made and has received an ideal results. Using incrementing analysis method to deduct the relation between distribution density function and the cost variety column, then constructing agricultural products' co...