Research On Ships Traffic Conflict's Mechanism And Controlling In Intersecting Water

With development of traffic science and technology, traffic safety in waterway traffic is improved greatly. Ships' routing and precautionary areas are set up for special traffic controlling in many intersecting water, VTS(vessel traffic services) systems are founded for ascensive supervising in crucial intersecting water, rounding routes for ships'navigation are set up to depress ships traffic conflict in several intersecting water. However, traffic safety isn't overall good in intersecting water. Especially in some inner intersecting water with huge ships flux, there is severe hidden safety trouble, when visibility is very poor or there is foul water meteorology or weather.Paper has ships traffic conflict in inner intersecting water as the object of study, studies measuring of traffic conflict of a single ship crossing ships flow and affecting relation between environment factors and traffic conflict by induction and deduction methods, studis phase density controlling technique by system analysis method, aims to explore basis theory of ships traffic conflict and depress ships traffic conflict in intersecting water. Frame and content of paper are arranged in the following.Chapter Two simply studies ships traffic conflict mechanism in inner intersecting water. Firstly, paper studies basic knowledge of ships traffic conflict; summarizes ships traffic trait in inner intersecting water; analyzes forms and reaction course of ships traffic conflict in inner intersecting water; finally, studies environment factors affecting ships traffic conflict.Chapter Three studies measuring traffic conflict of a single ship crossing ships flow in inner intersecting water. Firstly, paper studies trait of a single ship crossing ships flow in inner intersecting water; lodges applying integrative distance index to measure traffic conflict of a single ship crossing ships flow according to dynamic course trait and related objects of crossing; concludes primary model to measure traffic conflict of a single ship crossing ships flow according to relation between integrative distance index and traffic conflict; finally concludes criterion to estimate traffic conflict extent of a single ship crossing ships flow based on integrative distance index according to experts questionnaires data and observed data by VTS.Chapter Four studies systemic relation between environment factors and traffic conflict of a single ship crossing ships flow in inner intersecting water. First, paper erects index factors and analyses simple relation between environment factors and traffic conflict of a single ship crossing ships flow according to professional knowledge and common practice sense; defines variable range according to professional knowledge and design experts questionnaires based on perceived traffic safety pressure of ships drivers to study relation between environment factors and traffic conflict; analyses multilayer relation between environment factors and traffic conflict by SEM(structural equation modeling) based on experts questionnaires; finally founds primary model between environment factors and integrative distance index by multivariable linear and non-linear regression.Chapter Five studies "phase density controlling" technique to depress ships traffic conflict in inner intersecting water. Firstly, paper summarizes actuality of controlling ships traffic conflict in inner intersecting water, and lodges applying phase density controlling technique to depress ships traffic conflict according to trait of ships flow in inner intersecting water; analyzes basis theory of phase density controlling technique by analyzing crossing form in the center of water and comparing integrative avail before and after and application of traffic regulation and controlling interspace of ships flow; anlayzes rational interspace of ships flow based on ships encountering and perceived traffic safety pressure of ships drivers and opposite relation between depressing ships traffic conflict and protecting traffic efficiency; finally applies example about SanXia Reservoir to explain application of phase density controlling technique.