Study And Application Of Road Traffic Safety Management Decision Based On The Analysis Of Traffic Violations

This subject mainly studied such problems as traffic violation occurrence regularities &prediction algorithms, causes of traffic violations and violation black-spots determining, suggested fuzzy decision theory methods of traffic violation management, developed a software system called Traffic Violation Analysis and Decision System, which was helpful in improving traffic safety management level.Firstly, it studied the causes of traffic violation behavior, and discussed the common characteristics of traffic violations. It analyzed traffic violation mechamism in detail from four points including human being, vehicle, road and environment, and the tendency leading to accidents. This part was the base of the following ones.Secondly, a kind of composite model of traffic violation prediction algorithm was proposed, which was the union of small-wave theory and SVM, and its feasibility was verified by the simulation example of some district in a province.Thirdly, the analysis of traffic violations was studied. Reference to traffic accident black-spots analysis methods, the black-spots analysis methods of traffic violations were studied. According to the characteristics of traffic violations, an equivalent total violation analysis method based on penalty points was proposed. Prediction of black-spots of traffic violations was made too. Through experimental analysis, black-spots analysis methods can effectively analyze the locations of traffic violation black-spots.Fourthly, traffic violation management decision algorithm based on second-order fuzzy inference theory was studied. This chapter analyzed several decision methods for traffic violation management, including decision tree method, fuzzy inference method and multi-order fuzzy inference method. Every method was based on practical experience, so it was more similar to the thought of human beings, and more robust.At last, Traffic Violation Analysis and Decision System was developed, with.net 2005 development kit and oraclelOg database. This made our theory's application more accessible.Researches were made of the causes.hazards and counter-measures of some frequently-occurred traffic violateons,which will be much helpful to the practical work.