Research On The Mechanism Design And Evaluation Method Of Power Coal Supply Chain’s Coordination Under Uncertainty Conditions

The major of the energy in China is the coal. The percent of the thermal power is more than 70 in the whole Chinese electricity. The coordinate between the electricity of the coal is attached importance by the workers for theo ry and practice. Recently, because of some factors such as the Chinese Economy cycle and the drop of the coal’s price all over the world, the relationship and the way of the supply and demand for electricity and coal have changed. The NDRC in China pay attention to the logistics of coal and the electricity coal supply chain. So they published "the plan of the development of the coal logistics" in the final 2013, and in the March in 2015.They published a new series of reform scheme for the system of the electricity. In the long term, the Chinese coal market will develop a stabilize, mature and normative market.It’s high time carr ying out the management of the electricity coal supply chain. Due to internal and external environment of coal supply chain has a g reat deal of uncertainty, therefore this paper, based on uncertainty theory, supply chain management theory, contract theory and Game theory ets. made a comprehensive systematical research on the coordination of electricity coal supply chain, in order to construct a theoretical framework of electricity coal supply, chain coordination implementation issues in theory, and to promote the coordination and development of coal supply chain in practice, enhance the electricity coal supply chain performance, and improve the coordination of coal electricity.Firstly, defining the concept of Electricity coal supply chain and analyst its features and structure, cleared electric coal supply chain coordination of target and the coordination elements. After that, through the electric, and coal profit function analysis, cake model, and cockfighting model, it points out that long-term in-depth of power reform is the necessary condition of electric coal supply chain; then, it points out that the key factors of electric coal supply chain coordination, and focuses on convergence uncertainty factors of electric coal supply chain coordination: electric price policy, and emissions policy, and resources control policy, policy factors, and supply uncertainty and demand uncertainty, the Department of Transportation uncertainty, credit uncertainty, information transfer uncertainty and other factors are analyzed, so that the coal supply chain coordination should based on the system of combination of macro-coordination and micro-coordination.Secondly, on the macroscopic coordination, using three evolutionary games model to analyze green electricity coal supply chain coordination of the implementation of the routing problem, analyzes influence factor of coal enterprise, electricity power enterprise and government three evolutionary games in electricity coal supply chain, constructs the payoff matrix of three party evolutionary game and replicator dynamics eqution. And the simulation analysis was made on electricity coal supply chain coord ination realization path problem, discusses the coordination and conflict of electricity coal supply train coordination realization among the coal enterprise, electricity enterprise and the government to get the optimal realization path of supply chain coo rdination.Furthermore, In micro coordination. Firstly, based on prospect theory, in balanced consideration of coal enterprise and power company’s risk benefit under the electricity coal supply chain CFD, the CFD coordination mechanism is built. In this CFD coordination mechanism, the coal demand in electricity coal supply chain equilibrium under centralized decision is its annual total amount of transactions. By the design of contract coordination mechanism, double marginal utility is solved. And based on prospect theory, in structure of CFD, the paper regards the benefit of coal enterprise and power company in equilibrium of Stackberg non-cooperation game as a reference point, considers coal demand as random variable and designs one-year trading session CFD, non-CFD coal price is paid on market price every day. Secondly, for electricity coal supply chain of coal production enterprise, power generation enterprises and coal circulation enterprises, three-stage electricity coal supply chain’s benefit distribut ion mechanism is put forward, in which revenue sharing contract is improved in the way of amending Shapley value.Finally, in order to deepen the macro and micro coordination in electricity coal supply chain coordination designed by this paper, on one hand, the paper builds MADM Model based on improved intuitionistic fuzzy TOPSIS in electricity coal supply chain coordination. The method aims at the uncertainty and fuzziness of relevant information, proposes TOPSIS integrated decision model of IVIFSs based on cumulative score interval function and apply it to electricity coal supply chain coordination evaluation. Then it evaluate electricity coal supply chain coordination condition of our country, and propose improvement measures at macro level. On the other hand, the paper set up electricity coal supply chain coordination performance evaluation system based on the balanced scorecard. This method uses improved integrated evaluation model to positive analyze the performance of six electricity coal supply chains, proposes coordination mechanism of improvement at micro level and provides a reference for the coordinated development of electricity coal supply chain.