Empirical Research On Interaction Relation Between Chinese Monetary Supply And Real Estate Price Under Overseas Financial Crisis

With the world economic integration and globalization increasing, financial crisis in a country or a region will tend to spread great harmly around the world. From the view of time feature, the financial crisis showed a certain periodicity, and the cycle is gradually shortened. In 2007-2008 American financial crisis, there are three main reasons: First, the real estate policy, financial policy adjustment is not timely, resulting in a decline in the ability of the real estate industry, the scale of the implicit guarantee of the excessive expansion of asset quality decline, resist the subprime crisis. Second, financial derivatives, financial control policies lack of trade chain too long, making frequent speculation, financial derivatives price is far away from its true value. Third, monetary policy in rampant speculation is inopportune or inappropriate, loose monetary policy has fueled speculation, with a crisis in the financial letter after the tightening of monetary policy to expand the credit crisis. Thus, the formation of the financial crisis, and currency, real estate and other financial factors are closely related.Accordingly, we take the financial crisis as the background, and carry out the following research on the relationship between money and real estate:First, this paper puts up the study on the theory of the currency and real estate interaction under the financial crisis. First of all, define the core concepts of the economic crisis, financial crisis, monetary policy tools, and real estate price. Secondly, analyze the transmission mechanism of the impact of monetary policy on real estate price. Thirdly, analyze the impact of real estate prices on money supply and demand. Finally, construct a theoretical framework of monetary and real estate interaction under the financial crisis.Second, empirical study is carried on the relationship between typical economic variables and the price of real estate in the background of financial crisis. Construct state space analysis model by using 70 large and medium-sized city housing sales price index, the gross national product GDP, the consumer price index CPI, M2 amount of money, the central bank’s one-year deposit rate of the 5 variables. Carry out research by using unit root test, cointegration test method to analyze the relationship between these 5 variables.Third, this paper carries out empirical study on the relationship between three kinds of money supply and real estate prices. Select M0, M1, M2 three kinds of monetary characterize monetary policy, and select the State Housing boom index to characterize the price of real estate. Construct the state space model of 4 variables. The empirical results confirmed that three types of money have significant impact on real estate prices, and the effect of M2 is more obvious.Fourth, the two-way interaction research is carried out between monetary and real estate forecast. M0, M1, M2 are selected three kinds of currency and the State Housing boom index R as research variables. With the help of the Kalman filter model, empirical analysis had been carried out. The empirical results show that the interactive relationship of three types of money supply and real estate prices still clear exist in the future.Fifth, suggestions are given from the monetary supply policies and real estate price policies in four aspects: first, give monetary and real estate policy under interaction considering; second, adjust the monetary and real estate policy combined with the historical data and forecast data; third, take money supply as the main tool of monetary policy and take into account other monetary policy tools; fourth, adjust monetary and real estate policies to deal with the financial crisis.