Research On The Medel And Application Of Sector Final Energy Consumption

With the development of economy, the primary energy consumption will not grow indefinitely. Compared with the primary energy consumption, the final energy consumption can more truly reflect the energy consumption situation during the operation of each department of national economy. This paper explores S-curve Law between final energy consumption in industry and transportation sectors and economic development in the developed economies and Connotation interpretation with other related variables. The paper constructs method based on hyperbolic tangent function and forecasts final energy demand. The study is to further deepen and extend the existed S-curve theory of primary energy consumption. It is of great significance for a country, especially in developing countries or regions, to grasp the trend of energy transformation in industrial process, forecast the energy demand and formulate relevant energy policy.Firstly, this paper systematically analyzes the relationship between final energy consumption in industry sector and economic development using over 100 years of data in 15 developed countries or regions. It’s found that with the per capita GDP growth, final energy consumption per capita in industry sector shows a S-shape track like “slow growth-accelerates growth-decelerates growth-zero growth or negative growth”, and divide into high, medium and low types.Based on the anatomy of history of end-use energy consumption in industry sector and economic development in typical countries such as US, Japan, Germany, France and Italy, we calibrate take-off point( GDP per capita 2500~3000 GK $), turning point(GDP per capita 10000~12000 GK $ in the high and medium types; GDP per capita 7000~9000 GK $ in the low types) and zero growth point(GDP per capita 15000~17000 GK $ in the high and medium types; GDP per capita 10000-12000 GK $ in the low types) on different S-type. We discusses the internal connection between end-use energy consumption in industrial sector and energy consumption intensity in industrial sector, percentage of the secondary industry, urbanization and crude steel consumption per capita, too. The turning points in S-curve is corresponding to the peak point of the secondary percentage and final energy consumption intensity in industry sector;the zero-growth point maintains correspondence with the stationary point of urbanization and the zero-growth point of the crude steel consumption per capita. Using the method based on S-curve Laws, final energy demand in industry in typical developed countries and developing countries from 2016 to 2040 is forecasted. The results shows that final energy consumption per capita in industrial sector of developed countries has crossed the zero-growth point and steps into the downstream channel. final energy consumption in China and India’s industry sector follows the low S-curve type. The energy demand peak of China’s industrial sector will arrive at 2015-2017, while at 2035 in India.Furthermore, final energy consumption in transportation sector also complies with the Scurve Law. Its take-off point concentrated on GDP per capita of 5000 GK $, the turning points in 10000~12000 GK $ and the zero-growth point in 20000~22000 GK $. At the same time,The turning points in S-curve of transportation is corresponding to the peak point of final energy consumption intensity; The zero-growth point maintains correspondence with the stationary point of the Gompertz curve of Vehicles ownership. The prediction results of typical countries displays that in most developed countries, the final energy demand of the transportation sector is in a downward trend. And the peak of final energy demand will come in 2030 in China’s transportation sector.