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Research On Counter-cyelical Monetary Policy Rules In Macroprudential View

Posted on:2017-02-17Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:H W LiFull Text:PDF
GTID:1109330485461051Subject:economics
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The outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 aroused the concern of the financial systemic risk, which had widely macroscopical influence. If the financial systemic risk burst, it will cause great damage to the economic and financial system. It comes from two dimentions:one is horizontal dimension. In the case of the global economic and financial high correlation, owing to correlation between financial institutions and jointly hold, the financial risk has been rapidly amplified. Then the bankrupct of singal financial institution would promptly deteriorated the whole financial system. The other is time dimension. The interact of financial system and real economy, would form a positive feedback mechanism(Pro-cyclical effect), which magnify the economic boom and bust cycle, and exacerbated the cyclical economic fluctuation and financial system instability(FSA,2009).In the conventional economic theory, fiscal policy and monetary policy would be viewed as macroeconomic tools, which could regulate reverse cycle to smooth economic fluctuation; micro-prudential supervision policy would be used to regulate financial department, and reduce the possibility of singal fianancal fail to maintenance of financial stability. The responsibilities and objectives of macroeconomic policies and micro-prudential supervision policies rarely overlap. Before this financial crisis, micro-prudential supervision department consider the healthy of singal financial institution is the necessary and sufficient condition of financial stability. However, this condition, in fact, is not a sufficient condition, not a necessary condition. Instead, micro-prudential supervision policy might cause too much and too little of regulation. Due to systematic and destructive influence of macro-financial risk, how to control has been one of the most popular issue after crisis. The research results show that macroprudential policy is the most effective framework to control systematic risk. In order to solve the problems of confused definition about macroprudential policy, FSB, BIS and IMF for the first time defined macroprudential policy, which use prudential management tools(capital ratio, leverate ratio, loan loss provision, loan multiplier et al.), and necessary governance structure to fight against financial systematic risk. Specifiaclly, macropurdential policy framework includes four parts:macroeconomic policy, macroprudential regulatory policy, market discipline and international cooperation. The four parts are parallel relationships, however, both objectives and instruments are interconnected and interactive. Traditional macroeconomic policies themselves has some countercyclical characteristics, such as fisal policy has function of automatic stabilizer, which use individual income tax, corporate income tax and transfer payment to curb excessive economic expansion and contraction; when economy system is too hot or too cold, or inflation deviate policy goal, monetary policy would begin to adjust interest rate(such as Taylor rule). Notably, the large part of monetary policy transmission depends on financial system, thus its influence on the fianancial stability is clear. Firstly, monetary policy might influence risk-taking and leverage of financial institution. It could change risk-taking and leverage of financial institution through impact on bank’s method of risk assessment, search for yield, habit formation and so on. Secondly, channel of banlance sheet is another important channel of monetary policy transmission. The adjustment of interest rate could change banlance sheet of financial institutions, households and enterprises. In the economy upturn period, the value of collateral rises, public confidence elate, balance sheet polish up, credit scale increase, asset prices could rise much further, and the risk of financial imbalances accumulates. Thirdly, Unconventianal monetary policy pour liquidity into financial system directly or indirectly after crisis. It would promote risk appetite, and avoid lack of liquidity which would lead to more and more financial institution go bankrupt.This paper first reviews the research paper on monetary policy after international financial crisis. It describes the transition process of monetary policy theory from inflation target to macroprudential view. Before this financial crsis, the main stream economist consider, the main target of monetary policy is stabilize prices, and minimize the output gap. It need not consider the effect on financial stability. The main causes include three aspects:first, it is difficult to judge bubble of asset prises, the optimal choice is rescue afterwards; second, even if the central bank can judge financial imbalances, monetary policy can’t decrease risk of financial stability; third, there isn’t appropriate policy rule. After crisis, however, academics and policies rethink and debate these causes:first, inorder to avoid financial crisis, central bank needn’t accurately predict when the crisis happened. What it needs is just the judgement of whether the risk of crisis outbreak has been rising in the economic environment, and the leverage of financial institution potential effect on financial stability. Furthermore, central bank’s costs of rescue are very high, which include economy recession, deteriorate of government budget, hangover of awash with liquidity; second, monetary policy would influence commercial bank risk-taking. Interest rate policy has huge potential effect on financial stability. In the lower interest rate environment, commercial bank has the strongly expansion of risk. Monetary policy decision should not only consider tradition target such as inflation and economy growth, but also in the macroprudential view that notice financial institution risk-taking and financial system distorted; third, it is more and more difficult to comply with Tinbergen’s Rule in practice. Central bank should not view the problem of policy allocation as only a corner solution. It should take the stability of macroeconmy and financial system as optimalization problem of simultaneous equation. Monetary policy and financial regulatory policy should have two targets. Besides, some economists surport this view from new angles. For instance, Borio(2006) propose that the interact of financial deregulation, monetary policy in inflation target system, and real economy globalization, lead to changes of global economy structure. Curency regime which target inflation can’t suit the new economy situation.Then, the author conducted both practical and theoretical studies of moentary policy risk-taking channel. Risk-taking channel is a new research monetary policy transmission channel. It emphasize the effect on assets yield in financial market with exogenous adjustment of interest rate. The path of transimmion includes three morderns:(1)interest rate influence commercial bank valuation, income and cash flow, and then the risk assessment; (2)search for yield effect; (3)habit formation effect. In addition, it can be influenced by macroeconomy situation, communication and reaction function, bank’s capital, bank industry market structure, bank’s features and so on. Thus, this paper builds a theory model included bank capital and bank industry structure to ananlyse risk-taking channel. The result shows that:(1)when banking sector is perfectly competitive, bank risk - taking is only influenced by interest rate policy; (2)when banking sector is monopolistic competition, banking risk-taking is influenced by interest rate policy and reserve requirement ratio policy. Whatever market structure, higher capital adequacy ratio in the banking sector, the impact of policy on bank risk-taking will be weaker. Then we used 50 commercial banks’data during the periods of 2003-2013 to verify the conclusion of theoretical model in China, and found that banking risk-taking is influenced by interest rate policy and reserve requirement ratio policy. Therefore, China’s interest and reserve policy should take financial stability into account, and cooperate with macro-prudentional policy by "lean against the wind".Aferwards, the author conducted practical study of monetary policy balance sheet channel. After this financial crisis, some researchers found that moneytary policy transmit not only through enterprises’balance sheet, but also commeriacal bank and housholds balance sheet. Igan et al.(2013) conducted practial research on American balance sheet channel of monetary policy and found that the rise of federal funds rate would lead to increases of fund costs and decreases of bank loan supply. At the same time, the decrease of bank net assets value, as the restrictions of leverage ratio, would prevent commercial bank loan to enterprise and household. On the other hand, the rise of interest rate would lead to debt interest rise, present value of assets and collateral depreciate, the credit standing of borrower and demand of loan would d fall, and these factor will influence monetary truansmmision. Interest rates rising→ interest payments on the debt increasing→present value of assets and collateral depreciating→the credit standing of borrower and demand of loan falling→ the external financing premium increasing→ credit growth deceleration→ aggregate deman and output slowdown. This paper use FAVAR model, and China’s 87 macroeconomy variables to analyse monetary policy balance sheet transmission channel. The results show:first, the adjustment of interest rate has a significant effect on bank lending rate, particularly large commercial banks. It also influence bank loan scale significantly. If interest rate rise 1 percent, the total loan would decrease 1 percent. The effect on household balance sheet with interest rate rising is equal to the effect on financial institution.The author build a DSGE model included financial intermediary, crdit supply friction, and financial accelerator. The author introduced risk-taking channel and balance sheet channel into the DSGE model. We firstly analyse the partial equilibrium of credit market and find that "lean against" monetary policy which consider credit scale and bank leverate, would performance better than inflation target policy. When inflation fluctuated, monetary policy with macroprudential view could restrict the range of interest rate variety, and then restrict credit supply curve movement, with stability of credit scale and loan interest rate to some extent. We use calibrated model to do general equilibrium analysis, and found that, when economy suffered technology and cost shocks, extended Taylor rules that considered credit and bank leverage, would reduce volatility of all variables. When economy suffered technology shock and enterprises loan condition loosed, extended Taylor rules considered credit would crimp its balance sheet expansion, repress the financial accelerator brought by financial demand friction; When economy suffered cost shock, extended Taylor rules considered leverage would crimp bank’s balance sheet shrink, avoid bank’s cyclical behavior, and then cut down effect on economy fluction brought by financial supply friction. Currently, China’s monetary policy has considered couter financial cyclical, however, to bulild a perfect macroprudential policy framework still needs cooperation of interest ratge liberalization, counter-cyclical condition and macroprudential tools.In the sixth chapter, the author analysis unconventional monetary policy created by western developed country in the financial crisis period. We first summarize the practice experience of unconventional monetary policy in developed countury. We found that unconventional monetary policy included Forward Guidance, Quantitative Easing, Indirect Credit Easing, Direct Credit Easing, avoid financial system collapse. Inorder to analysis the applicability of unconventional monetary policy in China, we built a DSGE model included credit friction, and calibrated by China’s information. We simulated the techonology, monetary and bank capital shocks in the model, and analysis the variables in the model reponse. The results show that, in an DSGE mode with financial friction, there is cyclical effect of bank balance sheet, which amplified the impact of various types of shock. Then, we adjusted the scale of bank capital shocks for making the ecnomy recession close to the past 15 more serious financial crisis average level. On this basis, we simulated moderate credit intervention policy and unconventiaonal monetary policy in the model, and found that, both types of credit intervention policy could cushion the economy recession. When we added zero lower bound of nominal interest rate, the optimal choice is unconventional monetary policy. It means when China is beset with a crisis, unconventional monetary policy could be helpful. What we need to do are bulding toolbox of unconventional monetary policy, improving public communication mechanism and making financial stability to be one of monetary policy goals. The last part is the summary of the article. The author considered that China’s economy has been entered "new normal" economy, from high-growth to moderate-growth. The new potential risk would be more complicated with marketization of financial system and the whole economy. The author thought that we should closely follow progress of theory and practice, and combine the characteristic of China’s reformation of financial system, to do more research on macroprudential framework.
Keywords/Search Tags:Mcroprudential, Counter-cyelical, Monetary Policy Rule, Risk-taking, Balance Sheet
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