Socio-Economic Effects Of Conditional Cash Transfers On Education Attainment In Pakistan:Evidence From Sindh

In order to incentivize poor segment of the society and to make investment in human capital, significant attention on the execution of conditional cash transfers (CCT) program has been given not only in the countries in which they are implemented but also in the international policy makers and in academia. Consequently, for the evaluation of the impact, great efforts have been made. By making the flow of funds on the condition that the families will send their child to school will resolve the problem as it will provide better opportunities in future as there is strong correlation between education and higher earnings. Therefore, the conditional cash transfer programs are effective tool to reduce short term poverty and to improve human capital for the long term.The Government of Sindh (GoS) prioritized the education sector and initiated Sindh Education Sector Reform Program (SERP) in FY2005-06 to fulfill the global commitment and to achieve millennium development goals (MDGs) with the objective that the program will increase school participation, reduce gender gap and rural-urban disparity, improve schooling outcome, increase retention, completion and improve the quality. Cash stipend is provided to address the issue of gender gap and rural urban disparity.The study attempts to evaluate the impact of cash transfers on the middle and secondary level enrollments using the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and most recent waves of Pakistan Social and Living Standard Measurement (PSLM) Survey. The impact of cash stipend is assessed in Sindh by taking non-stipend district of Punjab as counterfactuals. Propensity score matching create suitable match of the treatment group with the control group on the basis of propensity scores. The other benefit of using propensity score is that it create random sample of the treatment and the control group.The analysis of the impact of cash stipend on the enrollments of middle and secondary level is performed separated for the year 2006-7,2008-09 and 2012-13 to identify the short term and medium term impacts of cash stipend program in Sindh.In addition to the intended benefits of the cash stipend program, it is expected that there could be some other benefits that the society is getting from the program such as reduction in the early child marriages and the child labor. Therefore, efforts are made to observe the impact of cash transfers on early child marriages and child labor is also observed.The Research Study is the first attempt to assess the impact of cash stipend program in Sindh, Pakistan. Earlier studies with particular reference to Pakistan has used non random sample which may create selection bias. This study for the first time in Pakistan used the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to address the issue of selection biased. The study will not only fill the gap in existing literature with respect to Pakistan but also facilitate policy makers for improvement in decision making and policy implementation. The study has provided the basis for further analysis and later, impact evaluation at district (sub Provincial) level can be performed. Further, it also provided basis to perform impact assessment for differential stipend program in Sindh, Pakistan. The impact assessment technique used in the research study is the most sophisticated method in the absence of non randomized sample. None of the study conducted in Pakistan has employed this technique.The assessment of gender gap and rural urban disparity, it is found that there is a clear disparity in educational attainments of the population in rural and urban areas, and across the districts in Sindh. Using the education Gini index, we have estimated inequality in educational attainment. Although, inequality declined between 2004-05 and 2010-11 but the extent of inequality remains high (above 58 percent in 2010-11). The Gini index is higher for rural areas as compare to the urban areas across districts indicating rural-urban disparity in education attainment. Inequality in education attainment between male and female showed that it is higher in female particularly for rural Areas.The results of the impact of cash stipend on child labor using the propensity score matching highlights that there is significant negative impact of cash stipend on the child labor. It can be concluded that the cash stipend program is effective to enhance enrollment in middle and secondary level and to reduce child labor in Sindh. Further, both the issues, early child marriages and the child labor are the result of poverty in the society. Government should take measures to reduce poverty and accelerate growth in the region.The finding for the early child marriages showed that early child marriages increased in FY2006-07 and FY 2012-13 while for the FY2008-09 it showed significant negative impact on early child marriages. This doesn’t mean that the cash stipends are ineffective in creating impact on early child marriages suggests that the cash stipend reduces early child marriages and child labor in Sindh. It will take time to bring change in the behaviors.