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The Comparison Of The Siho-US Financial Structure, Systemic Risk And Stress Testing

Posted on:2015-03-13Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Q Y GaoFull Text:PDF
GTID:1109330467465577Subject:Industrial Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
It has been more than five years since the start of the global financial crisis in2008. However, the nearest observation and documentary research shows that the financial crisis is still not over. China’s economic and financial market development is facing the great challenge of domestic and international economic and financial changes. In order to keep the economy stable and growing, promoting economic restructuring has become a trend for China. In addition, the impact of the global financial crisis is still deepening. Since2012, the rapid development of China’s Internet banking has constituted an increasingly significant impact on the domestic financial sector. Meanwhile, the stability of the bank-dominated financial system is bound to be influenced by the financial liberation reformation initiated by China.Based on the consideration of the above problems, the paper argues that the current Chinese financial systemic risk not only has the general characteristics, but also has the particularity which is determined by its structural characteristics and historical stage characteristics of China’s financial development. In view of this, the research of the financial systemic risks of the developed countries cannot provide effective interpretation and pertinence suggestions in the aspect of preventing financial systemic risk. Therefore, this paper will systematically compare the difference of financial structures between China and the U.S. based on the general research of the financial systemic risk, and then based on the difference, we will deeply study the difference of the financial risk formation mechanisms of the two countries; and finally the paper will conduct comparative analysis on the measurement objects, mechanisms and specific technical differences of the overall financial risk.The American financial crisis has exposed the sources of the financial systemic risk, which lies in the following two points:First, it is the result of the long-term changes of the economic structure and the excessive virtualization of the economy; Second, after30years’financial liberalization and deepening development, there has formed a financial structure in which the financial market takes lead. Meanwhile, from the microscopic aspect, the financial innovation is characterized with securitization and derivation. Since the1990s, the leveraged finance has been widely used. From the point of view of the financial fragility and instability theory, all of these have made the American financial stability become very vulnerable because the overall development of the finance is lack of enough solid supports from the real economy and the microscopic mechanism of deleveraging has also exacerbated the financial instability. These research studies are referable and valuable for the study of China’s financial stability. However,as the starting point, the path and the degree of government intervention of China’s finance development are different from other countries and the new financing currently energies rapidly,all of these make the specific mechanisms of our financial instability differentiate from developed countries like the United States. In view of this, we need to give enough attention to the influence which will be brought by the difference of financial structures towards the financial instability.At present, studies on the understanding of the financial structure are basically consistent, but there also exists differences. As this paper focuses on the differences of financial structures between china and the U S, so we need to know the basic understanding of the financial structure. Financial structure is composed of the existing financial instruments and the financial institutions, including the concentration of the branches of financial intermediaries, the existing financial institutions, and the operation of the financial instruments, the relative scale and the operating characteristics. This paper argues that the financial structure is a constantly evolving process.This paper argues that the American financial systemic risk is determined by the changes of the financial structure, which is mainly from the financial derivatives market and financial innovation. When the banking system is not fully associated with the Wall Street financial derivatives, the stock market crisis will not evolve into credit system crisis, such as the U.S. stock market crisis in1987.In1999, as the separate operation control was broken, the commercial banks are also involved in the financial derivatives innovation activities in various dimensions. Then the Wall Street stock market crisis spilled over the credit system. This is the reality of the2008American subprime crisis.Compared with the evolution path, structural characteristics and financial risk characteristics of American financial structure, China’s financial system has been bank-dominated.Although the stock market has been greatly developed, from all aspects of data, commercial banks are still the core of China’s financial system. Since the1980s, China’s financial industry has undergone many reforms. Influenced by the reform and opening up of China’s economic system in all stages, in the evolving process of the structure of China’s financial industry, the vulnerability of the financial sector with the bank as its core also has demonstrated its periodic characteristics and the structural features of Chinese finance. At present, China’s financial systemic risk is reflected in the structure of banking system, with its vulnerability revealed in the structures of regional medium and small commercial banks. The paper will launch the research of China’s financial systemic risk on the basis of the vulnerable position that the regional medium and small commercial banks has been posed in the China’s financial structure.China’s financial systemic risk has experienced periodic changes. Currently it is more focused on the medium and small commercial banks:(1)Since1998and after the reform of commercial banks, the regional commercial banks which are restructured from the city commercial banks develop relatively rapidly;(2) the local land finance, real estate credit and local financing platform are complicatedly intertwined with each other.according to the information available to the public, we can get that the regional commercial banks have been responsible for a considerable proportion of local government debt financing;(3) as the regional medium and small commercial banks have formed a large number of business contacts with other banks and other financial institutions,the changes of the structure of assets and liabilities will have immeasurable impact on the entire financial system through these contacts;(4) influence by the global economic crisis, the old China’s economic growth pattern is obviously unsustainable and the economic restructuring has become inevitable.the fiscal and financial reform has been carried out. With the interest rates liberation being the inevitable trend, the competition in the financial sector will be increasing, which will cause great impact on the regional medium and small commercial banks;(5) the network finance, which is the dark horse of the finance will form a significant impact on traditional financial institutions and a greater impact on regional medium and small banks.Therefore, when designing Chinese macro prudential regulation and policy principle and designing the stress testing, we need to fully consider the financial systemic risk on the basis of the characteristics of the financial structure.The specific features are as follows:First, the source of financial systemic risk has significant changes in different historical periods, from the deterioration of the state-owned enterprises debt, to the risk transfer of the stock market bubble and to the close relation of the Chinese real estate industry and local land finance; Second, an important financial institution which is important towards the system is not necessarily a big bank, and it may be the medium and small commercial banks which may have played an important role in the system, which must be highlighted in the designing of the stress test.The overall structure of this paper is as follows:First, the paper will compare the difference of financial structure between China and the U.S.; Secondly, we will build a basic dynamic general equilibrium model to explain the evolution of the financial structure and propose to build a theoretical analysis framework which will cover the financial structure, systemic risk and bank stress testing; Third, the paper points out that fundamental influence of differences in the financial structure must be considered when designing the stress testing for the commercial banks and designing the macro-prudential supervision policy. This paper, based on the theory of the financial structure and the theory of systemic risk, will compare the principles and methods of the bank stress testing in details. Finally, according to the formation characteristics of China’s financial systemic risk, this paper will put forward the general design principle of the macro-prudential policy and regulations and the ideas and special tools for the regional commercial banks’stress testing.
Keywords/Search Tags:financial structure, financial systemic risk, commercial banks, stress testing
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