Study On The Distribution Of Falling Points And The Evaluation Methods Of Range And Dispersion Of Multiple Launch Rocket System

From the viewpoint of mathematical statistics, the test evaluation for range anddispersion of the Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) is studied deeply in threeways, theory, experiment and computation. The theory of the distribution of fallingpoints of MLRS is established. The new test evaluation methods for range anddispersion arc presented.The characteristic of the distribution of falling points of the MLRS is studieddeeply and approximate distribution model of falling points for the MLRS isestablished. The coherence of the distributions of the falling points between non-fullcharges loading mode with full charge loading mode of the MLRS is analysed. Thefeasibility of substituting non-full charge loading firing for full charge loading firingin the dispersion test is verified by mathematical statistics. The shortages of theformer methods which used in budgeting test consumption of rockets are modifiedand a new method to computate the test consumption of rockets based on firingprecision and test benefit is developed.The test method and probability density model of variability coefficients offalling points are established. It is proved that the sample variance coefficient is theunbiased estimate of the population variability coefficient. By using stochasticsimulation, the sample variability coefficient probability quantiles are obtained.It is found that credibility of Bootstrap interval estimation is less than theclassical statistical method for normal distribution parameters by using simulation.The sample capacity should be lager than 17 for Bootstrap method in weapon test.The method can be used in test of the range and dispersion under the non-normaldistribution condition.The Bayes evaluation method for the range and dispersion of weapon isestablished. The method of confirming the prior distributions in the weapon test isparticularly studied. The calculation methods of the error-â… probability and theerror-â…¡probability and the Bayes evaluation method of weapons range based on theuniform prior distribution are presented.The theory and method of the test information amalgamation for the single-parameter and the double-parameters under the condition of the complete order andthe non-complete order are established respectively. The evaluation method for rangeand dispersion based on multi-period test information amalgamation is studied.