Modeling The Evolution Of The Chinese Building Stock In A Sustainable Perspective

China is undergoing a rapid urbanisation and modernisation process, which have led to dramatic increase of the building stock. The energy and mass flows and the related environmental impacts of the Chinese building stock deserve attention due to the high volume of construction activity, the probably short life span of the buildings constructed in the recent years, and to the increasing need for living and working standard, which have already led to severe environmental impacts.The study aims to analyse the evolution of the Chinese building stock in a sustainable perspective. An integrated LCA model with combined bottom-up and top-down approaches is proposed. The model derived the basic information of the Chinese building stock in the reference year (2005), and simulated its evolution in the coming 50 years (from 2005 to 2055), in order to examine the mass-energy-cost flows and the related environmental impacts. Microsoft Excel is used as the calculation tool.Based on literature review and field study, the key parameters concerning the development of the building stock are identified, and the major hypotheses are proposed, including classification of the Chinese building stock, the simulation methods of the dynamics, and the relationship of refurbishment, life span, value and total cost of buildings. The model analysed the scenarios of different development strategies, including the targets and successions.The model is validated by comparing the results from the top-down and bottom-up approaches. It can be used to assist decision-making process in the management of the built environment. It is scalable, which means that if more detailed bottom-up data are available, it can then be applied to analyse the built environment on different levels, such as national, regional, and urban level.