Prospect Theory-Based Models For Travelers' Trip Decision And Simulation For ATIS

The development of information technology brings turnaround for the traffic problem.But how the information technology will influence travelers' behavior and the evolution pattern of urban transportation system is sill not clear. Therefore, the research of travelers' trip decision has an important theoretical and practical value. The existing models for travelers' trip decision are mostly based on the Expect Utility Theory, which seems to have some devia(?)ons from the real world. So the paper will construct the model according to the Prospect Theory as well as analysing travelers' trip decisi(?)on and the evolution of urban transportation system by making use of the model.Travelers' trip decision can be divided into two kinds of processes from the time dimension: within-day and day-to-day. Under the theoretical framework of Prospect Theory, considering a variety of travelers' individual characters such as risk attitude and trip experience etc., the paper builds the theoretical model for travelers' route choice behavior within a day. The definition of reference point for travelers' trip decision and the method of discretization of continuous route attributes are also given.According to the Cognitive Psychology, the paper uses the Bayesian updating model to analyze the learning of travelers from their experiences and the ATIS information during the day-to-day trip process.The paper studies the threshold for learning triggering and the travelers' memory capacity; also incorporates the updating mechanism of travelers' confidence to ATIS, which relates the travelers' subjective error with their confidence to ATIS. At the same time, travelers' depart time choice behavior during day-to-day trip is viewed as learning and adjusting process in the paper. Then the delay compensation algorithms and learning threshold for depart time choice is given. The results of simulation based on the algorithms are similar to the travelers' behavior in real world, which shows the effectiveness of the algorithms in modeling travelers' depart time choice behavior .Referring to the Complex Adaptive System theory, the paper establishes the Agent Based Trip Simulation System (ABTSS) under the environment of REPAST.The paper contrast the Prospect Theory with the Expect Utility Theory in their ability of modeling travelers' route choice behavior from such aspects as theoretical computation, SP surveys and simulation experiments respectively. The results prove that the Prospect Theory could give a more precise description of travelers' route choice...