Study On Forecasting And Warning System Of The Sustainable Utilization Of Region Water Resources

Nowadays, sustainable development is a significant issue which is related to the future and destiny of people, and the international society pay more and more attention to it. Water resource as the foundational natural resource and the strategic economical resource, is the important safeguard of the economic society sustainable development. The forecasting & warning system is built to give us how to make good use of the limited water resource and give warning beforehand according to some certain theory and technology, which in order to reasonably instruct the exploitation of water resource, and make the sustainable development of economic society. Therefore, researching in the forecasting & warning system of the sustainable- utilization of region water resources has the extremely important theoretic and practical meaning. This article under the instruction of the sustainable development theory, tries to carry on the research to the forecasting & warning system of region water resource, and then obtains some preliminary study achievements in forecasting & warning of sustainable-using the region water resource. Main research work and research results as follows:(1)Through comprehensive and deep development of the concepts of the forecasting & warning index-system, the warning elements, the warning levels, the warning sources, the warning signs and so on, we initially formulate the concept frame ,which has specialized and professional character in forecasting & warning system of region water resource.(2) Through the deep research to theoretic basis, the forecasting & warning principle and the regulated mechanism of the forecasting & warning system of region water resource sustainable-utilization, we initially construct theory system which both has the water resource attributed character, and satisfies the forecasting & warning system request of the forecasting & warning system of region water resource sustainable-utilization .(3) Through the research to the concepts and background of synthetic evaluation method of the forecasting & warning system of region water resource sustainable-utilization , we propound warning level determination and warning sign recognition methods of the forecasting & warning system of region water resource sustainable-utilization.(4) On the grounds of formulating the forecasting & warning system of region water resource sustainable-utilization index-system , we propose the methods of using the forecasting &warning system of region water resource sustainable-utilization index to early warn ,and classifying warning levels by comparing and judgment .we also build up the early-warning model of region water resource sustainable-utilization by using artificial neural networks method ,which indicates high precision though model training and precision examination.(5) Through the discussion of necessity and feasibility of the forecasting & warning system research, we comprehensively analysize and research technical system of forecasting & warning and limited factors of the organization, and we also explore decision support-system software of by using the object-oriented technology.(6) We carry out testified analysis to the forecasting & warning system of region water resource sustainable-utilization, and using research foundings ,instruct Yuanyang government to formulate the "2006-2010 "plan of hydro—development, and propose the regulation strategy and practical measure, which will turn the water resource exploitation of the Yuanyang Hani terraced fields from slight warning to no warning .