Research On The Modeling And Evaluation Method Of Weapon System Of Systems For Striking Time-Sensitive-Target

A Time-Sensitive-Target (TST) refers to the random-emerging high-valued target which can not be struck without the authorization of the battlefield top-commander, and the opportunity of attacking TST is restricted within the time-window strictly. Since the mission of striking TSTs("TST Mission"for short thereafter) holds such features as strict time-constraints, high demand in info-interaction quality, concurrent sub-operations, and random decision-making, it has to be accomplished by a System of Systems(SoS) consisting of multi-type weapons which function synthetically. The following high requirements are placed upon the capability of the SoS for TST Mission on targets acquisition and identification, information sharing and exchange, speedy decision-making and long-range precision striking. As far as the evaluation of the SoS for TST Mission is concerned, the new characteristics and requirements have produced some problems which can hardly be solved by traditional evaluation methods in the terms of the normative description of the research objects, the selection of the evaluation indices, the modeling of operation procedure, and the analysis of the critical parameters. In order to tackle these problems, utilizing a certain weapon SoS for striking the ground mobile targets as the research object, this dissertation proposes a type of modeling and evaluation method of weapon SoS from the aspects of evaluation framework, operation procedure models, critical parameters modeling. The research has the following contributions:(1)According to the requirments of the TST Mission, the research-related concepts, structure and operation procedure are deeply analyzed. Using the specification provided by the DOD Architecture Framework, the structure of the SoS for TST Mission and the operation flow of the TST Mission are formally described. Fully considering the time factor,the indices of the measurement on the kill chain and the TST Mission effectiveness are introduced. The indices of the interaction and identification capability of the SoS for TST Mission are advanced. The framework and implementation procedure of the evaluation of the SoS for TST Mission are brought forward.(2) In order to delineate the characteristics of TST Mission such as time-constraints, stochastic decision and synchronization, a Petri-net based modeling method of the TST Mission is studied. The new type of modeling tool called Stochastic Decision Net(SDN) is extended from the traditional Petri Net. The running policy and the net-structure based method of constructing stochastic-decision-making-rule are established. Using the SDN models, the typical operation procedures of the TST Mission are modeled and the resolving algorithm of the SDN models is also proposed.(3)Several types of the critical parameter models of the TST Mission and their analizing methods are established. In the aspect of time factor, the model on the time window of the typical TSTs is established. The model on the sensor time based on the procedure of the SAR image creating is established, too. The flying-time of ballistic missiles and guided aviatic bombs, and the approaching-time of platforms are also modeled respectively. In aspect of decision quality, this dissertation establishes the decision quality model of the SoS based on the decision-time using the interaction index as the independent variable. In the aspect of capability of target acquisition and identification, the models of the TST acquisition and identification probability of the SoS for TST Mission are designed.(4)Aiming at the evaluation of the information interaction of the SoS for TST Mission, this dissertation introduces the concept, definition, and properties of the interaction index. An interaction-matrix model which describes the SoS for TST Mission is proposed, thus the interaction evaluation is transformed into matrix evaluation. Using the matrix spectral norm as the evaluation index of the interaction-matrix, the norm's monotonicity to the quality of the interaction between sub-systems is proved mathematically, which makes sure of the rationality of the interaction evaluation.(5)Using a typical mission of striking ground TSTs as background, an operation scenario and experimentation scheme is established. Given the present state of art of the weapon system development internal and abroad, two sets of deployment of the SoS for TST Mission are configured. The simulation results are compared and analyzed,and the sensitivity analysis on the factors impacting on the effectiveness of TST Mission is performed. The methods and the models proposed in the thesis are validated.In conclusion, several unsolved issues are discussed and the focuses of future work are also pointed out.