Epidemic Status And Space-Time Analysis Of Cardio-Cerebrovascular Diseases In Urumqi

Object:To understand the epidemic status and change trend of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease（CVD）in Urumqi residents,to explore the time distribution and aggregation of CVD deaths in Urumqi,and to provide scientific basis for accurate prevention and control of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.Methods:Incidence rate,mortality,annual percentage change（APC）,life loss rate and other indicators were used to analyze the prevalence and trend of CVD.The time distribution of CVD death was analyzed using circular distribution.The change of CVD mortality rate was analyzed by the differential decomposition method of rate;Predicting the number of deaths from January to December 2022 using the Time Series Seasonal Differential Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average（SARIMA）model.The spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to analyze the incidence rate and mortality of CVD,and explore the spatial distribution of CVD in Urumqi.The difference was statistically significant（P<0.05）.Standardize the data using the 2010 national census population and using the5-year-old age group as the standard population.Results:1)A total of 23434 CVD cases were investigated in Urumqi from 2017 to 2021,with a incidence rate of 59.02/100 000 to209.03/100 000 and a standardized incidence rate of 72.62/100 000 to 222.64/100 000.The incidence rate increased at an average annual rate of 21.00%,with no statistically significant change trend（t=1.46,P>0.05）.The standardized incidence rate increased at an average annual rate of 12.02%,with no statistically significant change trend（t=0.84,P>0.05）.The incidence rate increased with age,and the incidence rate of CVD in men was higher than that in women（P<0.05）.The order of incidence was cerebrovascular disease,myocardial infarction and sudden cardiac death.2)A total of 30686 CVD deaths were investigated in Urumqi from 2015 to 2021,with the mortality rate ranging from92005/100000 to 15082/100000 and the standardized mortality rate ranging from10442/100000 to 16784/100000.Mortality increased at an average annual rate of 9.09%,with a statistically significant difference in change trend（t=4.22,P<0.05）,while standardized mortality increased at an average annual rate of 4.71%,with no statistically significant difference in change trend（t=1.59,P>0.05）.Mortality increased exponentially with age,reaching the peak in the age group≥85 years old.The mortality of CVD in men was higher than that in women（P<0.05）.Among the dead residents of CVD,married residents,retirees and people with low education level have the highest death constituent ratio.The order of death causes is heart disease,cerebrovascular disease,other hypertension,and other diseases of the circulatory system.Among heart diseases,other coronary heart disease deaths account for the first place,followed by acute myocardial infarction and other heart diseases.The PYLL,PYLLR,SPYLL,SPYLLR and AYLL of permanent residents in Urumqi from 2015-2021 due to CVD were 123084.50 person-years,5.19‰,120777.38 person-years,5.09‰and 13.61 person-years,respectively.The difference between the mortality rate of CVD in 2020-2021 and 2015-2019 is 30.09/10million,and the contribution rates of population factors and non-population factors to the mortality rate are 91.16%and 8.84%respectively.3)The high incidence of CVD death in Urumqi is concentrated in winter.SARIMA（0,1,2）（0,1,1）₁₂model was used to predict the monthly death data of CVD in 2022.The predicted values were all within the range of95%CI,and the number of deaths in 2022 was predicted to rise.4)The incidence rate and mortality of CVD in Urumqi in 2021 have obvious positive correlation in the global spatial distribution（Z>1.96,P<0.05）,and are mainly distributed in the middle east direction.The local spatial autocorrelation HH clusters and hot streets are distributed in the suburbs and cities.Conclusion:The incidence rate and mortality rate of CVD are on the rise,which seriously threatens the health of Urumqi residents.Strengthening the prevention and control of middle-aged,elderly and male people,and at the same time,taking prevention and control measures in frequent seasons,high incidence diseases and hot streets in the middle east of Urumqi can effectively reduce the incidence rate and mortality rate of CVD.