Analysis Of The Influencing Factors Of Falls Among The Elderly In The Military Rest Center In Beijing And The Construction Of Risk Models

Objectives 1 To understand the current situation of falls of the elderly in the Beijing military cadre rest center,and to explore the factors related to the fall of the elderly in the Beijing military cadre rest center;2 Build a risk prediction model for the elderly in the Beijing military cadre rest center,and work for the military cadre rest center.Personnel assessment of the fall risk of the elderly in the military rest center provides a quantifiable screening tool for predicting and discovering the risk of falling,and provides a reference and basis for the development of effective fall prevention measures in a targeted manner.Methods From January 2019 to January 2020,a stratified random cluster sampling method was used to select the elderly in the Beijing Military Cadre Rest Center as the survey subjects,and a questionnaire survey was conducted by consulting health files and visiting households.The "General Situation Questionnaire"(including general demographic data,living and behavior habits,health status,medication use,and falling situation),home-based fall risk screening scale,The survey tools such as the Activities of Daily Living Scale and other survey tools were used to collect information on falls of the elderly in the Beijing Military Cadre Rest Center in the past year.After collecting the data,SPSS21.0 was used for statistical analysis to determine the risk factors affecting the occurrence of falls among the elderly in the military rest center,and a nomogram model was established using R4.0.2,and the Bootstrap method was used to internally verify the model to ensure the accuracy of the model.sex and science.Results 1 Status of falls of the elderly in the military dry rest center: The incidence of falls among the elderly in the military dry rest center is 23.8%.In the morning,autumn,indoor toilets,and bathing,falls are more likely to occur,and falls are easy to damage limbs.60.1%will reduce activities after falling,29.5 % required hospitalization after a fall;the home fall risk screening scale,the average total score was(12.91 ± 2.24)points.2 Univariate analysis of falls in the elderly in military rest centers: The results show that age,gender,personnel category,whether they have participated in combat,hypertension,diabetes,urinary system diseases,osteoporosis,stroke,wake up three times or more,Worry about falling,antihypertensive drugs,lipid-lowering drugs,hypoglycemic drugs,sedative-hypnotics,nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs,and total score of home fall risk screening scale were related to falls,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).3 Multivariate analysis of falls in the elderly in the military cadre rest center: the results showed that age,gender,hypertension,diabetes,urinary system diseases,osteoporosis,three or more nights,lipid-lowering drugs,hypoglycemic drugs,non-steroidal Anti-inflammatory drugs and home fall risk scale score grouping were significant influencing factors for falls,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).4 Construction of a fall risk prediction model for the elderly in the military dry rest center: 11 variables with statistically significant differences in the multivariate regression analysis results were incorporated into the model,and a fall risk nomogram was constructed for the elderly in the military dry rest center.The prediction model was internally verified by sampling,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)goodness-offit test showed that χ~2=5.129,P=0.744>0.05,there was no statistical difference between the model predicting the fall of the elderly in the military rest center and the actual situation;The area under the ROC curve(AUC)was 80.6%(95% CI: 77.3%-83.8%).When the interception T=30.36,the Youden index was the largest.At this time,the sensitivity of the model was 73.3% and the specificity was 57.0%.Conclusions 1 The incidence of falls among the elderly in the Beijing military cadre rest center is 23.8%,which is higher than that of the elderly in some urban communities in China,and lower than the incidence of falls in the elderly in nursing homes.2 Falls are the result of the interaction of multiple factors,such as advanced age,female,hypertension,diabetes,urinary system diseases,osteoporosis,getting up three times or more at night,taking lipidlowering drugs,hypoglycemic drugs,and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs.The high group of the drug and home fall risk screening scale is the high-risk group for falls.3 A fall risk prediction model for the elderly in the Beijing military dry rest center is initially established.After verification,the model has good prediction performance and can provide a basis for the fall risk screening of the elderly in the Beijing military dry rest center.Figure4 Table16;Reference 136...