| ObjectiveTo understand the fertility level and fertility intention of women of reproductive age under the current fertility policy in Wujin District of Changzhou City.To explore the related individual,family and social factors affecting their fertility intention and fertility behavior,and to analyze the reasons for local low fertility rate and the driving forces for fertility from different perspectives.To provide scientific basics for the local government and other related agencies to implement the new fertility policies under the current new situation.MethodsWomen of reproductive age(20-49)from 10 townships in Wujin District were selected by quota sampling and convenience sampling method.A self-designed electronic questionnaire was used to conduct a field survey.Data on demographic characteristics,fertility behavior,fertility intention fertility promotion strategies and other personal,family and social factors were collected.SPSS25.0 software was used to analyze the data.Chi-square test,multiple logistic regression and CHAID decision tree methods were used for univariate correlation analysis and multivariate analysis.ResultsThe effective recovery rate of the questionnaire in this study was 98.36%(4426/4500).There were 3,775(87.55%)married subjects,most of the participants and their spouses were Han,and only 1.38%of the women were ethnic minorities.The education level of the respondents is relatively high,with 68.46%having a college degree or above,and 54.57%of the couples have a college degree or above.84.53%of the respondents is with the annual personal income of less than 120,000 yuan,45.87%is even less than 60,000 yuan,and 86.68%of the family income is less than 300,000 yuan.The proportion of families which both husband and wife have medical insurance and pension insurance is 88.19%and 84.85%respectively.The married respondents all have huge pressure to support the elderly in their families.77.64%of the families need to support 3-4 elderly people,and even 7.71%of the families need to support 5 or more elderly people.The average number of children born in a family among the respondents is 1.15±0.61,and families with only 1 existing child accounted for 64.79%,23.05%of the families have 2 children,families with 3 or more children accounted for less than 2.00%,and 10.60%still have not given birth.The average number of children that women of reproductive age intend to have is 1.41±0.66.Most of the respondents intend to have 1-2 children,accounting for 50.05%and 41.73%respectively,and only 2.37%will consider having three or more children.5.85%of the respondents do not intend to have children,among them,the proportion of whom<25 years old,unmarried,with college education or above,the only child herself and work as employees is relatively high.In Wujin District,women of reproductive age had no obvious preference for the gender of their children,and the ideal birth interval was mainly 3-4 years(56.55%).At present,only 5.95%of women of reproductive age have a definite birth plan,61.46%are sure not to have children,and 32.59%are not sure whether to have children.The main reasons for limiting fertility and limiting having 2 or more children were"heavy economic burden," "no one to take care of children," "too old" and "hindering career development." In addition,high education level,medium level of economic income,only child,bad birth experience,high pressure to support the elderly,the number of existing children ≤1,etc.,are also important inhibiting factors of fertility intention.The important driving forces of Women of reproductive age in Wujin District to childbearing are as follows:agreeing that having multiple children is beneficial to growth,agreeing that children can add happiness to the family,the support of spouses and elders for childbearing,raising and educating children,etc.In the decision tree analysis of the intention to have two or more children,the most critical classification factors mainly include the consciousness that "having more children is beneficial to growth",the number of existing children,the attitude of spouses to having multiple children,the attitude of elders to having children,and the anxiety that having children affects physical health and figure,etc.Women of reproductive age in Wujin District believe that the most effective measures to promote their desire to have children are "convenient and high-quality medical and educational resources","economic compensation","extended maternity and lactation leave","high-quality and inclusive elderly care services" and "high-quality and inclusive childcare services".Respondents with high education level and high income level showed relatively strong plasticity of fertility intention,and preferred"convenient and high-quality medical and educational resources" and "high quality of services for eugenics",while respondents with low income level were more in need of"economic compensation" and "extended maternity and lactation leave".Those with above junior high school education level,and facing three or more elderly to support and no jobs are more willing to give birth when they could get access to "convenient and high-quality medical and educational resources".Those aged below 35,and whose annual family income is less than 300,000 yuan,and whose number of elderly to support is more than 5 are more likely to choose to give birth when they can enjoy"economic compensation".ConclusionBased on the results of this survey,it is speculated that the fertility rate of Wujin District at present is at an extremely low level.The fertility intention of women of reproductive age in Wujin District are at a very low level as well.The current fertility plan is far from ideal.It is predicted that the fertility situation of Wujin District in the future is not ideal.The fertility policy and supporting measures still need to be further improved and strengthened publicity.Special economic subsidies,rational allocation of medical and educational resources,optimization of childcare services,creation of child-bearing support environment,helping women of reproductive age balance work and family,reducing the negative impact of childbirth on women’s physical and mental health,quality of life,and career development,and promotion of the good prenatal and postnatal care services are the most urgent fertility promotion strategies that need to be improved most in Wujin District.Decision tree model has a high possibility to accurately predict the probability of fertility intention of women of reproductive age,and the method is simple and efficient.Regular follow-up of the same cohort is necessary to improve the efficiency of this study. |
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