Simulation Study Of Unconfirmed Information Spreading On Weibo Under Emergencies Based On SEIR Model

In recent years,public emergencies have occurred frequently all over the world,posing serious threats to people's personal safety,health and property safety.Incident broke out because people were blindsided,particularly urgent demand for information,and therefore easy to cause a variety of sources of information explosion,in which mixed with a lot of content is not accurate and even misleading and deceptive information,the widespread dissemination of such information is undoubtedly exacerbated the public panic,to emergencies emergency management brought huge challenge.At present,social network has been more and more widely used,especially its large user base,simple operation,and has obvious openness and interactivity,users can publish and browse the latest news anytime and anywhere.As a result,it has become a major battleground for the spread of unconfirmed information.Taking sina weibo as the research object,this paper analyzes the spreading rules and influencing factors of unconfirmed information in emergencies,so as to provide reference for emergency management and information supervision.In this paper,based on SEIR infectious disease model,combined with Weibo forwarding rules and transmission characteristics,the unconfirmed information transmission model of Weibo was constructed.Based on multi-agent simulation modeling theory and complex network theory,the improved model was simulated from the perspective of micro-individual transmission,and the influence of various influencing factors was analyzed.The main work includes:(1)Review the theories and literatures from the aspects of non-factual information,infectious disease model,complex network,multi-agent simulation,etc.(2)The concept of SEIR model,transmission mechanism,basic assumptions,transmission dynamics equation,the superiority and application value to carry on the analysis,combined with the Weibo forwarding rules and transmission characteristic of the model was improved,the Weibo network users are divided into(U),visitors(V),ignorant commentators(C)and forward(T)4 classes,Weibo unconfirmed information dissemination model was constructed.(3)The multi-agent simulation software Netlogo is used to simulate the unconfirmed information transmission model of Weibo,set the user attributes and interaction rules of the above four kinds of network,initialize the unconfirmed information transmission network,add simulation subject components and running programs,and realize the interaction between subjects.The simulation results show that with the increase of the number of initial user nodes,initial node degree,browsing probability,direct forwarding probability and comment forwarding probability,the spread of unconfirmed information will be accelerated,and the comment probability will slow down the spread of false information.Based on the results of the simulation experiment and the actual situation,this paper puts forward some suggestions for the information supervision of Weibo.