Research On The Impact Of Population Aging And Social Security Expenditure On China's Economic Growth

Population aging is arguably one of the major problems facing global society at this stage.Demographic factor is one of the important factors affecting economic growth.On the one hand,aging has a direct effect on economic growth;on the other hand,it can also act on economic growth indirectly through savings,capital investment,labor supply,and technological progress.China has always been a country with a large population,and the social problems caused by the increasing number of elderly people have become increasingly serious.Unlike other major developed countries,China has entered a prematurely aging society when its economy is not yet sufficient and material conditions are scarce.In recent years,the central government has been issuing relevant policies to solve the problems and challenges of population aging.According to the report of the19 th National Convention of the Chinese Communist Party,General Secretary Xi pointed out that a positive attitude should be adopted to solve the problem of aging.In recent years,the legislature has announced a medium-to long-term plan to actively respond to the aging population.The economic effect of a lower birth rate,an increase in life expectancy and an increase in the proportion of elderly people cannot be underestimated.Under these circumstances,it is necessary to consider the impact of population aging on economic growth.The research in this article first introduces the backdrop of population aging and the importance of research.Next,I will sort out relevant literature in China and foreign countries,and give the research methods of the thesis.Then,the meaning of population aging and the concept of social security expenditure are given,and the status,feature and reasons of population aging are introduced.Secondly,it separately elaborates the internal logical relationship between population aging,social security expenditure and economic growth,which provides a corresponding theoretical basis for studying the effect of population aging and social security spending on economic growth.So as to gain insight into how and how population aging and social security expenditures affect economic growth.Select the relevant data from the 31 provinces from 2005 to 2017 as the sample,constructed a panel model reflecting the influence of population aging and social security expenditure on economic growth in the whole country and eastern,central and western regions,and explored their respective effects on economic growth.After that,the results of the interaction between the two on economic growth are analyzed.Finally,in order to solve the endogeneity,the method of systematic GMM was used to test the research results.The main conclusions drawn are as follows:(1)Although population aging has had a serious adverse effect on economic growth,the effect of population aging on economic growth varies greatly in different regions,and population aging has a greater impact on the weak economy of the central and western regions.(2)In general,social security expenditure has an obvious unfavourable effect on economic growth,among which the adverse effects on the eastern region is more obvious.(3)The aging of the population and social insurance expenditures have an unfavourable effect on the economy,indicating that the two have a superimposing effect on economic growth.Finally,based on the above research results,some proposals are proposed to address the problem of structure,improve my country's social security system and boost economic growth.First,accurately grasp the impact of population aging on economic growth,and for population aging,regional factors should be considered;second,China's population fertility policy should be improved,and related support measures should be improved to encourage fertility and delay the aging process;third,Adjust the industrial structure model,appropriately develop products for the elderly,and actively develop the aging industry;fourth,improve the social security system,establish a new pension system,strive to reduce the superimposed effect of population aging and social insurance expenditure on economic growth,and prevent China Economic growth has entered a vicious circle of "welfare trap";fifth,it is necessary to promote technological progress and reduce the negative impact of the lack of labor in the economy.