Research On Regional Risk Assessment Of COVID-19 Considering Places

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pneumonia epidemic,it has spread rapidly around the world,causing serious consequences.During the spread of the epidemic,cluster infections that occurred in various places are an important reason for the rapid spread of the epidemic.In the case of epidemics in various regions,the places where large-scale clusters of epidemics have occurred have certain commonality,such as the South China Seafood Market and the Beijing Xinfadi Market.This shows that the risk of the spread of the epidemic is closely related to the attributes of the place.Therefore,this article starts from the point of view of places,conducts research on these key epidemic places,analyzes the risk transmission mechanism of the epidemic in the places,and studies the epidemic risk assessment methods in the places and regions.First,it introduces theories of disaster system theory,the chain reaction of emergencies,and systemic risks,and analyzes the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic from different perspectives.On this basis,study the transmission mechanism of the COVID-19 epidemic,summarize the transmission path of the epidemic in the place into two kinds of explicit transmission path and recessive transmission path,and propose the concept of disaster-causing body,disaster-leading body,and potential disaster-affected body in the transmission path.Secondly,conduct research on the transmission path of the COVID-19 epidemic in the places and the factors affecting the transmission risk.By combing through the spreading process of typical cases,identifying the transmission paths and transmission elements in key places,and analyzing the formation conditions and influencing factors of transmission path risks.On this basis,the relationship between the place’s own attributes and the risk factors of the epidemic transmission path is analyzed,and the functional attributes of the site are used as the determinant of the risk of epidemic transmission in the place.Then,based on the trajectory data of infected persons and the existing classification standards for places,the rules for place classification are formulated;based on the principle of bipartite graphs,the information of places and infected persons is extracted to construct an associated network,and key places with epidemic transmission paths are screened;based on the COVID-19 epidemic transmission mechanism,put forward the identification method of the explicit transmission path and the recessive transmission path in the place;on this basis,construct the potential epidemic transmission risk coefficient of the place and area.Finally,based on the data of the trajectory of infected persons,typical cases are selected to calculate the explicit transmission risk coefficient and the recessive transmission risk coefficient of various places.Furthermore,based on Nanjing’s POI data and administrative division data,the explicit transmission risk coefficient and the recessive transmission risk coefficient of each district in Nanjing are calculated,and the epidemic transmission risk in each district is divided into five levels.From the point of view of place,this paper studies the transmission path and risk factors of COVID-19,and evaluates the risk of epidemic spread in various places.Furthermore,according to the differences in the composition of places in different regions,the assessment of potential epidemic spread risks in the region can be realized,which can provide certain references and suggestions for formulating differentiated prevention and control strategies for the COVID-19 epidemic and achieving precise prevention and control.