Research On The Hedging Strategy Of Laying Hens Breeding Company Based On The Perspective Of Industry Chain

China is the country that produces and consumes the most eggs in the world.The development of layer industry has played an important role in meeting the consumption demand of urban and rural residents,promoting the income of farmers and promoting the employment of rural labor force.China’s egg industry has experienced more than 40 years of development,and has made great progress in breeding scale and industrial system improvement.However,there are some problems in China’s layer breeding industry,such as low scale,excess capacity,long breeding cycle,frequent outbreaks of disease and other emergencies.Therefore,the breeding enterprises are faced with frequent fluctuations in egg prices and unexpected market risks of breeding earnings,which affect the healthy development of the industry.Based on the perspective of industrial chain,this paper studies the risk of spot profit fluctuation and hedging strategy of laying hens.This paper makes an empirical analysis on the spot price data of eggs,corn and soybean meal from 2009 to 2019,explores the correlation among the three kinds of prices in the spot market,and analyzes the possible market risk situation that the breeding enterprises may face;and makes an empirical analysis on the data of egg,corn and soybean meal from 2014 to 2019,explores the correlation and association among the three kinds of prices Dynamic relationship.Based on the results of empirical analysis,this paper studies the hedging strategy.Finally,taking enterprise a as an example,a scheme of industrial chain hedging with egg,corn and soybean meal futures is designed,and a model is established based on the price ratio between material and egg,the fluctuation of profit after adopting the scheme is calculated,and the hedging effect of the scheme is evaluated.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Positioning the market risk of layer breeding enterprises.The market risk of laying hens is reflected in the uncertainty of breeding profit.According to the analysis of income and cost of breeding enterprises,the fluctuation of breeding profit comes from the price fluctuation of eggs,corn and soybean meal.Based on the analysis of the current situation of China’s breeding industry,it can be concluded that the risk tends to increase,and there is a need for risk avoidance for breeding enterprises.(2)This paper analyzes the linkage between the spot market prices of eggs,corn and soybean meal.There is a long-term equilibrium relationship among the spot market prices of egg,corn and soybean meal;the price fluctuation of corn is the one-way Granger cause of the price fluctuation of egg,the price fluctuation of egg is the one-way Granger cause of the price fluctuation of soybean meal,and there is no Granger causality between the price of corn and soybean meal.(3)Analyze the price relationship of egg,corn,soybean meal and spot market.The results of correlation test show that the three varieties are highly correlated;ADF test shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the three varieties’ period and the current price data series;there is a two-way Granger causality between the egg futures and the spot price,and the futures price change of corn and soybean meal is the one-way Granger cause of the corresponding spot price change.(4)This paper studies the hedging strategies of laying hens in different market situations.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of the egg industry chain,the law of price fluctuation and the influencing factors in chapter two and chapter three,the key points of the selection of hedging strategies for the breeding enterprises are analyzed,including the seasonal fluctuation of egg price,the periodic fluctuation of egg price,the linkage between egg price and cost,the substitution relationship between egg and other animal products,and the occurrence of epidemic.(5)This paper designs a industry chain hedging scheme and evaluates the hedging effect.According to the actual production,operation and hedging demand of case enterprise a,a hedging scheme is designed: the enterprise sells the egg futures contract closest to the expected egg laying time in the futures market two months before the start of the feeding period,buys the corn and soybean meal futures contract closest to the start of the feeding period,closes the position before the expiration of the contract,and sells the price of the enterprise Both sides of grid and raw material purchase cost are locked at the same time.Based on the data of 2016-2019,the standard deviation of profit after 42 consecutive operations compared with that before hedging is reduced by 64.3%,which proves that the scheme can effectively suppress the profit fluctuation and hedging strategy of laying hens.