Research On Multi-Agent Simulation Model For Grassland Land Use Change

Grassland is an important ecological resource and ecological barrier in China,but in recent years,affected by natural and human activities,China’s grassland ecosystem is facing a series of serious problems such as irrational utilization methods and increasing ecological pressure.Multi-agent based computer simulation technology can simulate and predict the behavior of herders,herdsmen and government in grassland,find out the problems and formulate corresponding preventive measures.In recent years,it has become a hot area of common concern in the academic community.Multi-agent simulation can simulate and predict the state feedback and change process of grassland land under a variety of factors such as complexity,nonlinearity and interaction.To achieve credible simulation of grassland land use change,it is necessary to realistically reproduce the behaviors of pastoralists,herders and governments in the grassland area,study the interaction mechanism between grassland land and human activities,and formulate effective Grassland utilization strategy.In this study,the idea of agent modeling is used to design and build a grassland land use change simulation model based on the Repast Simphony platform.The simulation process and composition structure of the model are analyzed and designed in detail.For the example of grassland land use change in Ewenke Banner,Inner Mongolia,this paper defines the geographic grid,the spatial environment,and three types of agents,herdsmen,family,and the government.Using the collected real data of Inner Mongolia grasslands,herdsmen,livestock and policies in 2018 as the basic simulation data of the model,and based on the actual development mechanism of grassland in Inner Mongolia,the herders and herdsmen’s behavioral decisions on grassland use and consumption and the interaction rules between various behavioral decisions and grassland land use changes are formulated in detail.This study uses genetic algorithms to optimize the behavioral decision of government agents.By balancing the economic and ecological benefits generated by grasslands in the grid,each geographic grid of the model is explored to realize the best overall production model of animal husbandry.Finally,in light of various scenarios such as the transfer of labor force in pastoral areas,different grassland use patterns,and government macro-control,we explored the changes in grassland land use and the results reflected at the macro level.The experiment proves that this study has a good and complementary effect on the problems of excessive simplification and low simulation of existing agent models.And the model has high practical value,which can provide scientific suggestions and decision support for the government to manage grasslands and pastoralists to use grasslands rationally.