Halting reactor transfers: Can trade expectations explain the willingness of nuclear suppliers to export reactors

Since 1974, there have been 42 contested nuclear reactor exports in which a supplier state ("the supplier") has considered exporting a reactor to a recipient nation ("the recipient,") and a third country ("the objector") has objected to the proposed transfer. The thesis's core research question is: Does a supplier's expectation of future trade with an objector impact the supplier's decision on whether to proceed with a reactor transfer to a recipient despite the objector's protest? Significance testing determined that there is no relationship between a supplier's expectation of future trade with an objector and a supplier's decision on whether to proceed with a reactor transfer to a recipient after an objector has protested the proposed transfer. However, the thesis's evidence suggests that the adoption of Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) guidelines for nuclear commerce in 1978 and 1992 contributed to the development of a robust norm against exports of nuclear reactors that do not accord with NSG regulations.