Food Security Evaluation Of The Yangtze River Economic Belt Based On Agricultural Sustainable Development

The Yangtze Economic Belt,as the backbone of China's development in the new era,relies on the unique resource conditions in the Yangtze River Basin,Grain production and economic development in the the Yangtze Economic Belt plays an important role in China.Studying the grain production status of the nearly 20 Yangtze River economic belt,exploring the driving mechanism of grain production,and evaluating the status of food security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt based on agricultural sustainable development,can provide a scientific basis for China's food security and the sustainable development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.This paper presented a study on the evolution of grain production structure and spatial-temporal pattern in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and influencing factors of grain production and food security,This paper also evaluation of food security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt based on regional sustainable development.Based on the 19 indicators(130 municipalities)selected from five aspects:agricultural production status,scientific and technological level,resource and environmental conditions,climatic conditions and social development level in 1990,1995,2000,2005,2010 and 2015 a.The evolution of grain production structure and spatial-temporal pattern in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and influencing factors of grain production and food security were analyzed and identified by using Spatial data analysis(ESDA),center of gravity transfer model,spatial error model(SEM),geographic weighted regression model(GWR)and panel data model.And evaluation of food security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt based on agricultural sustainable development by using factor analysis method.Research indicates:(1)The status of grain production in the Yangtze River Economic Belt declined in the country from1995 to 2015.Sichuan,Hubei,Hunan,Jiangxi,Anhui and Jiangsu are the key areas for grain production in the whole region.Rice is the main food crop in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,accounting for About 60% of the total output,rice productivity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt increased from north to south and from west to east;the proportion of wheat and corn production decreased in turn,and the productivity of both decreased from north to south and from west to east.(2)The hot spots clustering of grain production were mainly distributed in the Chengdu Plain,Jianghan Plain,Dongting Lake Plain,Poyang Lake Plain and Jianghuai District,and the cold spots were mainly concentrated in the Taihu Plain and Zhejiang Province in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 1995 to 2015.There is a certain similarity between the high-high agglomeration,low-low agglomeration of grain yield per unit area and the distribution of hot and cold points of grain yield.The gravity centers of grain production were expressed as moving to southern and western regions in Hubei Province of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 1995 to 2015.(3)There is a significant spatial heterogeneity in the quality of cultivated land in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The quality of cultivated land in the central,eastern and western regions is decreasing generally.The cultivated land area in the eastern part of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is rapidly decreasing in from 1995 to 2015,and the loss of dominant cultivated land is serious.There is a close relationship between the productivity and the quality of cultivated land.The output pressure of cultivated land region increases with time in the Jianghuai.(4)The positive effects of agricultural chemical fertilizer application on grain production have long-term effects in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The grain production in the western region is more affected by the application of chemical fertilizers;the effective irrigation area and the proportion of cultivated land are positive for grain production.The western region is higher than the eastern region,and it decreases with time;the positive benefit of grain planting area on grain yield increase gradually decreases after reaching the highest in 2005,the difference between east and west is significant,the highest in the east and the lowest in the west;The impact of precipitation on grain production has been different in time and space.In 1995,the partial negative benefits were obvious.In 2005-2015,the positive positive benefits were transferred from the western region to the central region.The impact of grain-to-food ratio,total power of agricultural machinery,temperature and natural disaster area on food production is constrained by time.The grain planting structure in the western part of the Yangtze River Economic Belt needs to be improved,the total power of agricultural machinery in the eastern region is reasonable,and the total power of agricultural machinery in the central region Excess;higher temperatures will cause food production to fall,and food production in the central and eastern regions will be severely affected by natural disasters.(5)Ther is a significant spatial heterogeneity in food security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 1995 to 2015,which is evaluated based on agricultural sustainable development.The sustainable development level of agriculture in the northwestern part of Sichuan Province is low,and the risk of low per capital food possession persists.The sustainable development level of agriculture in the Taihu Plain and the Zhejiang Province,in the eastern part of the Yangtze River Economic Belt are high,and the low per capital food possession risk is expected to be alleviated;most area of Yunnan and Guizhou provinces are basically self-sufficient in food,but there are sustainability risks.Food security in Chongqing and Southern Jiangxi Province is basically guaranteed,sustainable.;Jianghan Plain,Dongting Lake Plain and Jianghuai Region are advantageous grain-producing areas in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in long-term,with sound agricultural sustainability and high food security levels.The grain production advantages and the sustainability of agricultural production of Chengdu Plain and Poyang Lake Plain need to be strengthened.