Study On Sustainable Development Capacity Of Typical Counties In Restricted Development Ecological Zone Of Ningxia

The purpose of restricting the development of the main function of ecological zone is to coordinate the relationship between regional economic development,ecological protection and social development and achieve the sustainable development of the region.Ningxia's restricted development ecological zone is an important part of Ningxia's main functional zone,and its ecological status is outstanding.According to the different types of key ecological functional zones,The typical county areas of different types of functional areas are analyzed.The entropy weight method,comprehensive evaluation method,coordination degree model and spatial displacement model are applied to explore the spatial and temporal differentiation of sustainable development capacity at the county level.First of all,the research area rating index is constructed.The system uses the comprehensive index method to quantitatively analyze the sustainable development capability and explores the evolution characteristics of sustainable development capability of Ningxia restricted development ecological zone.Secondly,the dynamic model of the sustainable development system in the research area was constructed.The future development trend of the sustainable development system was predicted with VENSIM PLE,and the development models under different policy parameters were compared,so as to select the optimal development path and put forward the optimization strategy.The research results show that:(1)In view of the ability of Ningxia to restrict the development of ecological zones in the development of ecological zones,from the time series,the capacity of sustainable development in the three counties showed a steady upward trend.In 2005-2017,the population,resources,environment,economic and social indices of the three counties were generally fluctuating.The upward trend,in which the economic and social indices fluctuate less,the fluctuations of resources and environmental subsystems are obvious;from the spatial sequence,there is a difference between the three counties'sustainable development index and the high level of each subsystem index,and no stable.(2)From the perspective of the county interior,the sustainable development level of the three counties has basically experienced the process of development from non-sustainable development to basic sustainable development.Among them,the development trend of sustainable development capacity of Pengyang County and Yanchi County in 2005-2017 is basically the same,both are fluctuating upward trend,and the sustainable development process is basically from unsustainable to basically sustainable development.Sustainability has experienced a largely unsustainable to strong sustainable development process of Jingyuan County in 2005-2017.Compared to the sustainable development index,the curve of each subsystem varies little,and the differences between subsystems are small,and the level of development between subsystems is different at different times.(3)The change degree of the coordination curve of the three counties is more significant,and the trend of the coordination degree of the three counties is basically the same,basically in a coordinated state,and the level of coordination is general.The economic level of Jingyuan County is relatively low,and the coordination fluctuates greatly.The coordination level of Yanchi County is higher than that of Pengyang County and Jingyuan County during 2005-2014.The better coordination shows that economic development makes the economy and population,resources and environment The contradiction has been alleviated.After 2014,the coordination degree is lower than that of Pengyang County and Jingyuan County,while the coordination degree of Pengyang County is in between.(4)In 2005-2017,the focus of sustainable development capability of the study area showed a trend of "moving eastward and expanding northward".That is,the meridional direction fluctuates from east to west,and the latitude shifts from north to south.From the perspective of movement,the shift of the center of gravity of sustainable development is greater than the east-west direction,that is,the north-south direction of sustainable development increases more than the east-west,sustainable development center of gravity has a large difference in moving distance between different time periods.(5)The optimal development model,that is,the coordinated development model,is selected after the simulation prediction and scenario simulation,The scenario simulation results show that the population of the three counties will decrease during the forecast period,the total GDP will increase,the per capita net income of farmers will increase,and wastewater discharge will increase first and then decrease.According to the above problems in the three counties,different optimization strategies are proposed from the aspects of population,industrial structure,per capita net income of farmers,and environmental protection in order to provide reference for the sustainable development of the county.