Hunan Province Forestry Sustainable Development Evaluation Based On Ecological Footprint

The sustainable development of agro-forestry is an extension of the sustainable development’s concept and the rural areas’ development. At the same time, agro-forestry sustainable development is the world’s major research. Hunan province is a big province of national agro-forestry. The development of agro-forestry has a close relationship with the environmental resources in Hunan province. Due to the unreasonable utilization of agro-forestry resources, the cities are shrouded in smog in Hunan province, soil retention capacity deceases caused by agricultural mulch, source pollution caused by the unreasonable use of chemical fertilizer, etc. Therefore, the sustainable development of agro-forestry study in Hunan province is the basic guarantee to realize the sustainable development policy,and the study is of great practical significance for the protection of the ecological environment in Hunan province.In this article, I converts the main consumption of actual area of natural resources and all kinds of natural resources’actual area to ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of biological production area of agro-forestry in Hunan province from 2004 to 2012 through the method of ecological footprint model. I gain dynamic characteristics of ecological footprint, ecological capacity and ecological deficit with change of year,and I quantitatively determine the sustainable development of agro-forestry in Hunan province, discuss and analyze the conclusion, and put forward improvement measures and constructive suggestions for sustainable development of agro-forestry in Hunan province.The results show that:(1)From 2004 to 2012, structure of the ecological footprint of agroforestry in Hunan province,the proportion is as high as 89.75%～93.87%, agricultural cultivated land types are woodland type accounts for only 6.13% 10.25%(2) From 2004 to 2012,per capita ecological footprint of agro-forestry keeps a rising trend in Hunan province, from 0.77hm2 in 2004 to 0.8814hm2 in 2012, increases 14.47%(3) Between 2004 and 2012, per capita ecological carrying capacity of the whole agro-forestry gets a slight upward trend,from 0.7177hm2 in 2004 to 0.7271hm2 in 2012, up by 1.31%.(4) From 2004 to 2012, per capita ecological footprint of agro-forestry keeps a rising trend in Hunan province, at the same time, per capita ecological carrying capacity of the whole agro-forestry goes up,too.From the per capita comparison of ecological footprint and per capita ecological carrying capacity’s base and contrast analysis of changing rate, the ecological deficit of whole agro-forestry increased from 0.0523hm2 in 2004 to 0.1543hm2 in 2012; (5) SPSS17.0 regression analysis gets the per capita ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit curve estimation,model shows that agro-forestry ecological deficit will be expand from0.195 hm2 to 0.225 hm2 between 2016 and 2019 in Hunan province.Result shows that,in the next 10 years, there is a serious contradiction between the ecological carrying capacity per capita and ecological footprint per capita of agro-forestry in Hunan province.That is because of the cultivated land and forest land in Hunan province are artificially damaged directly or indirectly under the condition of stable development. The quantity of supply and demand will be in a state of imbalance,the ecological environment keeps deteriorating, the regional development pattern is in an unsustainable development model.