Determination Of The Appropriate Level Of Urbanization In The Main Grain Producing Areas

With the proposal of "new urbanization",urbanization has risen to the strategic height of China's development.Many Chinese scholars have also studied the issue of urbanization deeply,such as the phenomenon of suburbanization and semi urbanization,but few people explain the problem of urbanization in the main grain producing areas.This paper analyzes the problem of grain urbanization and puts forward the problem of moderation of urbanization in the main grain producing areas.The author thinks that there is a difference between the urbanization development of the main grain producing areas and the non grain main producing areas,and the same level of urbanization rate is not all applicable to them.Urbanization is a dynamic process of historical development,and this concept will emerge after a certain scale of development is reached.It is not only the result of industrialization,but also the promotion of agricultural development,which means that the rural surplus labor force and population continue to transfer to cities and towns,and the way of life and production of cities continue to spread to the countryside.At present,the voice of promoting economic growth through urbanization is becoming more and more intense,and many regions support the development of urbanization,even spare no effort.But whether the higher development of urbanization is better? The author thinks that the urbanization should conform to the special situation of the region in the process of development.There is a contradiction in the process of urbanization in the main grain-producing areas: It is faced with the dual pressure of ensuring a steady increase in grain output and accelerating the process of urbanization.The main grain-producing areas is the guarantee of national food security.Under the conditions of food production security,there should be a certain limit to the urbanization of the main grain-producing areas.Therefore,the author takes the main grain-producing areas as an example to explore the level of urbanization that different agricultural development models can achieve under the perspective of ensuring food production security.Rational measurement of urbanization is the basis of empirical analysis.By measuring the development of three levels of urbanization in major grain-producing provinces,cities,and counties,the author believes that there is a distinctive feature in the development of urbanization in the main grain-producing areas-“external force” pulling.The development of urbanization in most major grain-producing areas is not due to the development of local industrialization has driven rural populations to migrate to cities and towns.It is due to the relatively high degree of industrialization in other areas and attracts the outflow of local rural population.As a result,the local rural population has decreased and the urban population has not significantly increased.With the continuous reduction of administrative units,this phenomenon of “external forces” pulling urbanization will continue to increase.Only half of the provinces in the main grain-producing provinces have the phenomenon of "exogenous" urbanization,while at the level of the main grain-producing city,more than 66.67% of the cities have the phenomenon of "exogenous" urbanization.After the administrative unit was reduced to the county level,the situation became more pronounced and the degree continued to deepen.Urbanization in the main grain-producing areas will have an impact on food production.The establishment of a panel data model shows that the development of urbanization has a negative correlation with grain production.The development of urbanization will reduce the level of grain production,and the development of urbanization in different grain production areas will have different impacts on grain production.Among them,urbanization in Heilongjiang has the greatest impact on grain production,followed by Liaoning Province.Although we are gradually detaching from the traditional mode of agricultural development and moving towards modernization of agriculture,there is still a long way to go.The author has selected the United States,France,and Japan where modernization of agriculture has been achieved as an example.Referring to the average area of cultivated land per capita under modern agricultural development techniques,determine the agricultural labor force required by the main grain-producing areas and the agricultural surplus population that can be produced in the context of realizing agricultural modernization.This estimates the level of urbanization that is expected to be achieved.Take Henan Province as an example,if the U.S.agricultural production technology is used,it will produce 36.579 million people of the remaining agricultural population;if France's agricultural production technology is used,it will produce 36.21 million people of the remaining agricultural population;If Japan's agricultural production technology is used,it will produce a surplus agricultural population of 18.845 million people.The author believes that the expected rate of urbanization should depend on the scale of the transfer of surplus rural population to towns.Under the condition of “reasonable economic man”,the transfer of surplus agricultural labor to cities and towns will depend on the expected difference MR between the after transfer and the before transfer,and this transfer probability will gradually converge towards 1 as the MR increases.It is a U-shaped curve that changes with MR.After the calculation and use of the "extrinsic" existing in the main grain-producing areas for revision,it is believed that the urbanization of some major grain-producing areas is already approaching,such as Anhui and Jiangxi,where the current urbanization development is only 1.48% and 1.24% of the development distance from the urbanization threshold.The maximum urbanization limit is only 8.81% and 6.41%.However,there are also a considerable number of major potential areas for urbanization of grain production,such as Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang.Their current level of urbanization is still quite a certain distance from the limit,and it is believed that these provinces still have large amounts of surplus agricultural population that can be transferred.