Analysis Of Prognostic Value Of EORTC Risk Tables In Chinese Patients With Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer

Objective:To evaluate the applicability of using European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer risk tables in Chinese patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer.Methods:Between January 2013 to December 2017,362 patients with NMIBC who underwent transurethral resection of the bladder tumor(TURBT)at our hospital were followed up.Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to identify independent predictive parameters of recurrence and progression.According to the score of EORTC risk table,the recurrence and progression scores of patients were calculated,and the patients were stratified according to the scores.The probability of recurrence and progression at 1 year and 5 years post-operatively was calculated along with the 95%confidence intervals.We then compared the actual probabilities in our center to those obtained through the application of the EORTC risk tables.Results:Median patient age was 65 years(range,25–93 years),and the median follow-up duration was 43 months(range,2–75 months).125 patients(34.5%)were recurrence during follow-up.Multivariate analysis identified prior recurrence rate,T category and immediate instillation as the prognostic variables associated with the risk of tumor recurrence.37 patients(10.2%)were progression during follow-up.The variables that proved to predict the risk of progression were the number of tumors,CIS and grade.The probability of recurrence at 1 year ranged from 4% to 56%,and the probability of progression ranged from less than 0 to 32%.At 5 years,the probability ofrecurrence ranged from 26% to 73%,and the probability of progression ranged from 3%to 49%.An overlapping of the confidence intervals of the probability between our series and the EORTC group is detected.Conclusions:The immediate instillation of intravesical chemotherapy may reduce the risk of recurrence,EORTC risk tables could predict recurrence and progression in Chinese patients with nonmuscle-invasive bladder cancer.