| Objective Describe the epidemic feature of hepatitis C from 2009 to 2017 in Changsha,The ARIMA model and the curvilinear regression model were used to fit the incidence of hepatitis C from 2009 to 2017 in Changsha,and predicted the incidence in 2018 and 2019.To evaluate the incidence of hepatitis C in the next two years in Changsha,and to provide scientific basis for prevention and treatment of hepatitis C.Methods By querying the Chinese center for disease control and prevention to get the incidence,and Changsha statistical yearbook web site to get population data from 2009 to 2017 in Changsha.Using the SPSS 18.0 statistical software,using description epidemiological methods to analyze the epidemic Characteristics of 9 years in Changsha,and by using ARIMA model and the curvilinear regression model to modeling and simulation,select the optimal model,predict the incidence of hepatitis C in the future 2 years in Changsha.Results The cumulative hepatitis C cases reported from 2009 to 2017 in Changsha were 9526 cases,the average annual incidence of 14.97/100,000,an average annual growth rate of 5%,the incidence of hepatitis C between different years were rising(χ2 = 4.529,P < 0.05).The incidence of hepatitis C was sporadic throughout the year,without apparent seasonality.The difference of districts was relatively large,and the incidence rate of the five urban areas was higher than that of the four counties(χ2=1931.20,P=0.00),and the difference was statistically significant.The total reported incidence of the central five urban areas is higher than that of the four counties(χ2=811.03,P=0.00),and the difference is statistically significant.The incidence of male morbidity was higher than that of female in the nine years.Statistical findings,the incidence of male morbidity varies from year to year(χ2=68.99,P=0.00),and there is a linear trend between male incidence and year(χ2=31.966,P=0.00).The incidence of female morbidity also varies from year to year(χ2=71.86,P=0.00),and there is a linear trend between incidence and year(χ2=42.41,P=0.00).The highest incidence of hepatitis C was in the 40-year group(34.61/ 100,000),followed by the 50-year group(26.47/ 100,000),and the 30-year-olds(22.51/ 100,000).Age can be divided into low(0 ~ age group),medium(30 ~ age group),high(60 to age group)three age groups,the incidence was respectively 6.16/100,000 、 27.88/100,000 、 10.44/100,000.The difference was statistically significant(χ2 = 3682.99,P < 0.01).The proportion of farmers was the highest(30.84%),followed by domestic and underemployed(17.80%),dissociation(12.30%),and commercial services(3.47%).In the ARIMA model,the indicators were p=0,d=1,q=1,and the final model was ARIMA(0,1,1).The predicted incidence of hepatitis C was compared with the actual value in 2009-2017,and the prediction accuracy was 97.6%,MAE=36.89,MAPE=3.63%.The three curves regression model was determined as the optimal model,and the incidence of hepatitis C was 1363 cases and 1559 cases in Changsha in 2018 and 2019.Conclusion(1)The incidence of hepatitis C is on the rise in Changsha,and the situation was not optimistic.(2)The incidence of hepatitis C was mainly focused on the downtown area,and concentrated in young adults and farmers.(3)The three curve regression model has a good prediction effect on the incidence of hepatitis C,but other factors should be considered in practical application. |
PDF Full Text Request