Research On The Prediction And Management Measures Of Cancer Hospital Outpatient Amount Based On ARIMA Model

Objective: Outpatient service is the forefront of hospital work,which is the direct contact with the earliest medical treatment sites,at the same its also can contact the community and the hospital an important hub.Predicting the trend and regularity of outpatient settings can strengthen the management and construction of outpatient services,Especially for the development and planning of key departments have far-reaching significance.With the Cancer incidence and mortality rates continue to rise in China,the number of outpatients in cancer specialty hospitals has also increased greatly.This poses a serious challenge to existing space conditions and medical resources.Therefore,by establishing ARIMA data model and Fitting the reasonable statistical model,to accurate analysis of the out-patient volume of the out-patient in the outpatient department of the cancer hospital,and the change of the outpatient quantity in the key department,analysis of tumor hospital outpatient amount of short-term and medium-term outpatient volume of dynamic changes,By identifying the factors affecting the outpatient amount,its can not only further improve the quality of door inspection,efficiency,efficiency,and ensure the safety of medical care,but also quality service as the fundamental to the quality of services and improve the quality of medical treatment;The quality service of outpatient amount could provide meet the growing medical needs of the majority of patients and achieve a comprehensive,coordinated,sustained,rapid and healthy development of the specialist specialist of oncology.Content: In this study,we selected a large-scale tertiary thyroid cancer specialist hospital in Tianjin to diagnose and treat the tumor.The hospital has a strong representation in disease coverage and diagnosis and treatment.From 2005 to 2015,the hospital HIS system in the total outpatient and key departments outpatient amount for the research object.According to the National Cancer Registry 2016 malignancy data,we obtained the first five malignant tumors in China: lung cancer,gastric cancer,liver cancer,colorectal cancer and female breast cancer.The top five deaths were lung cancer,stomach cancer,liver cancer,colorectal cancer and esophageal cancer.Combined with the representative of the disease and the focus of the development and construction of the six clinical departments for data analysis,respectively,the lungs,esophagus,liver and gallbladder,stomach,colorectal,mammary gland and other imaging groups for specific numerical analysis.Method: Through the retrieval of comprehensive literature database at home and abroad,this study summarizes the relevant literatures of ARIMA outpatient forecasting and outpatient management,and analyzes the development trend of statistical outpatient volume.Select the school statistics department and the hospital management experts,rich clinical experience in the diagnosis and treatment of medical staff,university professors and so on as a consultation object,through the understanding of hospital satisfaction survey summary of outpatient management outstanding issues.The data of outpatient department were analyzed by descriptive statistics and autoregressive statistics from January 2005 to December 2015.Predict the trend of 2016 and 2017 months of outpatient changes.And the ARIMA model was established for the key department of the hospital.The monthly outpatient amount was 2016 and 2017 years.Result: 2016 and 2017 tumor hospital outpatient volume is still a clear upward trend,the growth rate tends to be stable.The results of the forecast in 2016 annual outpatient amount of 1147205 person-time,an increase of 13.00%,2017 annual outpatient 1285879 person-time,an increase of 12.09%,two-year outpatient average growth of 12.55%,are reflected in the year for the cycle changes.The results showed that in 2016,2017,the outpatient department had a seasonal trend,with the year as the cycle.The situation of each department is not the same.In the context of increased incidence of esophageal cancer,esophageal neoplasms showed a slight downward trend,the face of negative growth forecast,departments need to adjust the policy in time to enhance the overall strength;gastrointestinal cancer remained relatively stable growth of more than 5%;and as their own clinic Large base of the lungs,liver and gallbladder,breast cancer is still relatively large growth,especially breast and hepatobiliary tumors increased significantly,an increase of more than 10%.Combined with the actual situation of outpatient clinics from the incidence,holidays and climatic factors,changes in the strength of clinical departments,medical quality and service promotion,policy and institutional changes in five areas summarized the influencing factors.Conclusion: Based on the ARIMA model to predict outpatient and influencing factors,combined with the characteristics and advantages of cancer specialist itself,to achieve the corresponding management objectives,which for improving the level of cancer outpatient management has a good reference and guidance.Through the timely adjustment of the hospital resources,from the quality,resource deployment,service,outpatient function,information construction,work efficiency several aspects,fourteen points to do management measures to enhance,reform and innovation,scientific deployment of human,medical equipment Resources,to promote the development of key disciplines,extend the tumor outpatient auxiliary function,strengthen the information construction,do a good job of cancer outpatient peak warning and response work,so as to enhance the level of cancer outpatient management and service level,to promote China’s cancer prevention and control work to contribute.