Evaluation Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Guian New Area

Water resources play an important role in promoting the regional social and economic development,but the regional development and construction is important to water resources in China.The research on the carrying capacity of water resources is helpful to better understand the supporting role to water resources for the regional social and economic development and ecological environment,and understand the relationship among the regional social economy,ecological environment and water resources for coordinated development,which can achieve the regional sustainable development.As the eighth national new district in China,Guian New Area has the important mission of building the economic growth of central Guizhou and even the whole western region.At the same time,it is facing the big problem about how to realize the sustainable development of the regional social economy and water resources.This paper aims to study the status of water resources carrying capacity in Guian New Area.Based on the research results of water resources carrying capacity at home and abroad,considering the real status of Guian New Area,using the method of principal component analysis and the method of supply and demand balance analysis,it had evaluated and predicted quantitative and qualitatively the water resources carrying capacity of Guian New Area.On this basis,it has established a corresponding water resources recycling system,and proposed relevant engineering measures and policy recommendations,hoping to provide reference for the sustainable use of water resources and sustainable economic and social development in Guian New Area.The main research contents and results of this paper are as follows.(1)The water resources in the area of Guian New Area are characterized by water yield,available water and water sensitivity.Under the premise of analyzing the influencing factors of water resources carrying capacity,this paper have comprehensively considered the relevant factors of the impact of water resources in Guian New Area.To the construction principle of the indicator system,selecting 17index to establish a comprehensive evaluation index system for water resources carrying capacity in Guian New Area.This research used principal component analysis to comprehensively evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Guian New Area in 2012,and compared it with 9 cities,such as Guiyang City and Zunyi City in Guizhou Province.The evaluation results show that the water resources carrying capacity of Guian New Area is worse than that of Guizhou Province,and the water resources carrying capacity in the region is close to the upper limit.It is mainly reflected in the weak economic support,large population pressure,insufficient water supply capacity and sewage treatment capacity,high sensitivity to water environment,high level of water resources development and utilization,and tight supply and demand of water resources.(2)Through the establishment of the macro index system about water resources carrying capacity,the supply and demand balance analysis method is adopted to predict the carrying capacity of water resources in the Guian New Area in 2020 and2030.The equilibrium state of supply and demand about water resources of Guian New Area in the forecast level year is expressed in the form of absolute value.The calculation results show that the amount of available water resources of the Guian New Area in 2020 can meet the water demand of Guiyang and Guian.However,the total water supply gap of Guiyang and Guian in 2030 is about 1.55 hundred million m~3.If water conservancy projects are further built in the future,the development and utilization rate of water resources in the region will reach 46.9%,and the gap of water resources will still be 0.85 hundred million m~3.(3)This paper have taken into account the use of non-traditional water resources and further analyzed the future water resources carrying capacity of the Guian NewArea with different water conservation levels.In 2020,the amount of excess water in the Guian New Area will increase gradually under three different water conservation levels.In 2030,the Guian New Area is going to be in a state of water shortage under the general water saving level,and the medium water saving level,but the water shortage will significantly reduce,and the surplus will be higher than the water saving level,which will be up to 0.27 billion m~3.Therefore,Guian New Area should develop the recycling of water resources and improve water conservation vigorously.(4)Based on the analysis of the influence caused by the over-exploitation and utilization of water resources to the ecological environment,the system about recycling utilization of water resources in Guian New Area is constructed from the macro,medium and micro levels.In addition,the application of specific projects is further elaborated according to the water resources situation in Guian New Area.