Scheme Analysis For Travel Demand Management Based On Tradable Credits

With the rapid development of possessing private cars,it will be difficult for urban roads to meet the excess travel demand since the limited road capacity.Thus,the traffic congestion problem is more and more severe,which leads to urgent needs for reasonable and effective traffic policy to manage travelers' behaviors.Based on the Tradable Credits Scheme(TCS),this thesis considers the principle of interaction between traveler behavior and TCS from macroscopic quantity management,it discusses design of scheme and transaction rules.Specifically,it's aim to achieve the theory for novel management policy application by analyzing the TCS.Main contributions of this thesis are summarized as follows:(1)Analysis of traveler behavior based on discrete choice model.Given the urban residents' travel characteristics and influencing factors,this thesis first describe the travel mode choice,a discrete Logit model is also established.The numerical examples present the relationship between choice preference and residents' attributes.The research shows that income and the ownership of private cars have a greater impact on traveler choice(including private cars,taxis,and mass).(2)Analysis of Tradable Credits Scheme based on utility model.According to the attributes,travelers are divided to two groups(Car group,Car-free group).Two initial distribution methods(average distribution,historical distribution)are discussed.Constrained by income and ownership of private cars,a nested utility model based on Cobb-Douglas function is given.The Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT)method is designed to solve the model.The significance of solution is analyzed.The unified price is determined by the equilibrium price when market clearing.Traveler transaction behavior and market rules are investigated.A numerical example is then used to test the model,that is,residents'traveler behavior and tickets transaction behavior are compared on two distribution modes,the relationship between supply and demand is also analyzed.The research shows that Tradable Credits Scheme can achieve traffic demand management and control private cars to travel.(3)Analysis of trading pricing based on tiered strategy.The relationship between supply and demand is further analyzed by equilibrium prices.A demand response model is built to explore tiered pricing for purchase.Two indicators(consumer surplus,social equity)are proposed to evaluate tiered scheme.The most appropriate pricing strategy is then obtained by numerical case.The research shows that a tiered pricing scheme with multi-level binning and lower first-price price and coverage rate has the best effect.