Tao River Water Resources Development Situation And Evolution Process

Tao River Basin is located in the southwest of Gansu,is an important tributary of the upper reaches of the Yellow River.The south of the terrain is higher than the North,and the terrain is from the Tibetan Plateau to loess plateau,so there were significant differences in the characteristics,the upstream area is wet and rainy,and the downstream area is warm and little rain.In this paper,Tao River basin as the research object,evaluated the development status of natural environment,society and economy in the basin,the total and the state of development and utilization of water resources;Using monthly precipitation and runoff data of the Tao River station(start year-2015),using Mann-Kendall test method and wavelet analysis method analyze the change of water resources in the Tao River basin characteristics;6 ENSO index is used to analyze the correlation between precipitation,runoff and ENSO index by the delay correlation analysis method;this paper selects the sea surface temperature data of Arabia sea,Bengal Bay,South China Sea analysis correlation with the precipitation and runoff by using the delay correlation analysis method,The runoff calculation method of Tao river ecological runoff calculation.This paper calculates the Tao river ecological runoff by using Several main methods of ecological runoff calculation.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)the available water resources in the basin is relatively rich,but the water consumption is increasing,the average annual water consumption growth rate of 3% in 2010-2014.The Upstream ecological environment is deteriorating,and the water production capacity in the upstream region is declining.The change trend of precipitation in the Tao River basin also showed a downward trend.The change of Tao river runoff has a periodic variation of 15 years,and it also has 5-7 years cycle but it is not obvious.Since 1989,there was a significant reduction trend.On 1997,it passed the test of the confidence level 0.05,after this year,the trend of runoff decline was more significant.(2)The best ENSO index is Nino1+2 Area on the correlation between precipitation,runoff of Tao River Basin and the international ENSO index.and precipitation of each station over the same period coefficient is generally above 0.4,the delay correlation coefficient is above 0.7,reaching a moderate level;the main station runoff with,only to calculate the correlation coefficient the runoff and Hongqi station over the same period,the correlation coefficient is-0.57,moderate negative correlation.Therefore,Nino1+2 SST index compared with other ENSO index can reflect the impact of ENSO events on the Tao River Basin,the index as a new factor for the study of global climate changes on the impact of Tao River water resources.(3)the correlation of Tao river runoff and SST of Arabia sea,Bengal bay,South China Sea is low,but there is the higher correlation with the SST and Bengal bay.The SST of the South China Sea,Bengal bay and precipitation of Tao River Basin correlation is generally high,over the same period the correlation coefficient between 0.5-0.7,delay correlation coefficient maximum is in 6 months,generally above 0.7,the maximum is related to the sea surface temperature of the South China Sea and precipitation in the Luqu station,delay correlation coefficient up to-0.81.But the correlation between SST of the Arabia sea AND precipitation of Tao River basin is relatively low.Therefore,the SST of South China Sea,Bengal bay can be used as the Asian monsoon influence index on the Tao River Basin.Climate information can be stored in osean,so the SST is increased with climate warming increased,the study found that the SST and precipitation and runoff showed negative correlation,indicating the amount of water resources in the basin climate warming trend showed a decreasing trend.(4)The water resources in the Tao River basin is reduce because global warming.The water production capacity is declining because the deterioration of the ecological environment in the upstream.The water consumption is growing.It is necessary to delineate the development of water resources of the red line,to determine the ecological flow of Tao River.Using variety of ecological the runoff calculation method of comparative analysis,determine the minimum monthly runoff series of monthly runoff as the station runoff monitoring early warning value of Tao River Basin,the series can also be used as a reference for watershed water distribution during the year,avoiding excessive exploitation of seasonal water resources.