The Research On Characteristics Of Urban Spatial Expansion And Future Scenarios Simulation Of Jinpu New Areain Dalian

At present,China is in the stage of rapid urbanization,most cities have experienced rapid development in recent decades,urban morphology has undergone tremendous changes,the scale of urban land is also growing.But at the same time,the natural factors such as cultivated land and ecological land have been invaded and destroyed in varying degrees.In view of this,this paper took the National New District——Jinpu New Area as an example,and analyzed the expansion characteristics and driving factors of the built-up area by using the fractal theory;The SLEUTH urban growth model based on cellular automata is used to forecast and evaluate the development scale and distribution of the urban space in the new area,and some suggestions are put forward.The main contents and results are as follows:This paper interpreted the data of the built-up areas of the Jinpu New Area in 1985,1990,1995,2000,2005,2010 and 2015 year by combining with historical remote sensing images,the Second Land use Survey Data,socio-economic statistics and various planning texts.The morphological characteristics of the built-up area were obtained by using the method of equal fan analysis and circular analysis.Specific performance as follows:the intensity of the expansion was showing a trend of rising volatility;The N,NNE and NEE sectors were the dominant direction of the development of the built-up areas in the direction of the expansion of each direction.From the historical process of change,the development of hot areas showed a from northwest to southeast to the northwest of the inverted"pendulum"development process;The compactness was flat then rise,the fractal dimension increased first and then decreases,and the shape index decreased and after it was flat,and the external shape was more broken,but it had a certain"roundness".The natural environment,social and economic conditions,traffic network and policy measures have created the characteristics of the Jinpu New Area.Then,this paper selected the urban layers and transportation layers in 1985,1995,2005and 2015,with the slope layer,hillshade layer and excluded layer composed of various ecological elements,respectively 240m,120m and 60m resolution for the SLEUTH model in three stages of the calibration process.The Lee-sallee calibration model with better simulation effect and the optimal coefficient combination{1,8,33,10,25}produced by it were selected as the calibration parameters of the future urban spatial simulation of Jinpu New Area.According to various ecological factors and social economic factors,the paper set up the Historical Trend Development?HTD?,the Planning and Regional Development?PRD?and the Strict Ecological Protection?SEP?.Finally,it was found that the PRD mode with flexible ecological control intensity and planning factors was the most realistic situation of Jinpu New Area,and it was estimated that the scale of urban land use is 418.1km² and 583.3km²respectively in 2020 and in 2030.However,the SEP and HTD model also gave us inspiration,the expansion of urban space should be more from internal potential development and land use efficiency,not greedy big fast.This paper analyzed the historical characteristics of the urban form of the Jinpu New Area and explored the driving factors and helped to understand the historical development of the urban development of the new district;The SLEUTH model was successfully transplanted to the Jinpu New Area,which enriched the application case of the model,combined with the ecological factors and socio-economic factors of the situation plan for the decision-makers to provide an intuitive a variety of possible distribution of urban land for planning and regional sustainable development has a certain reference value.